NFL COWBOYS Bryant deal not a good scheme
Recent history shows receivers hit the wall near Dallas star’s age.
All that Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson have in life, Dez Bryant covets.
Fitzgerald and Johnson are the preeminent receivers in the NFL today. Johnson was the second overall pick in his draft and Fitzgerald the third in his. Both are former NFL receiving champions. Fitzgerald has been to eight Pro Bowls and Johnson five — and both now have contracts that place them among the highest-paid pl ayers in the game.
In 2011, Fitzgerald signed an eight-year deal for $120 million that takes him through the 2018 season. He turned 28 that year and rewarded the Cardinals with 80 catches and 1,411 yards.
In 2012, Johnson signed a seven-year contract extension for $132 million that takes him through the 2019 season. He turned 27 that year and rewarded the Lions with their first NFL receiving champion since Herman Moore in 1997. Johnson caught 122 passes that season for an NFL-record 1,964 yards.
Now Bryant finds himself at the pay window this offseason. It’s his turn to be rewarded financially as one of the game’s elite receivers. He turns 27 this season and in his prime. For the salary cap to handle the $100 million-plus Bryant hopes to command, the Cowboys would need to spread out his dollars over seven or eight years as the Cardinals did with Fitzgerald and the Lions with Johnson.
But it’s worth wondering if the Cardinals and Lions are having any second thoughts.
Since gaining those 1,411 yards in 2011, Fitzgerald has yet to catch 1,000 yards of passes in any of his last three seasons. Since gaining those 1,964 yards in 2012, Johnson fell off by almost 500 yards in 2013 at the age of 28 and by 400 more in 2014 at the age of 29. Fitzgerald and Johnson are paid to be the best receivers in the game, yet neither player ranked among the NFL’s top 30 in catches last season.
There’s a reason for this. There has long been a wall for running backs. There are only so many hits a body can take and by the time most running backs reach the age of 29, they have hit that wall. There’s generally a dramatic falloff in production thereafter.
We now see a wall developing for receivers as well. The game has changed from the days when an O.J. McDuffie could catch 90 passes and lead the NFL in receptions. That was in 1998. Every receiving champion since then has caught at least 100.
There is more throwing in today’s game, quicker throwing. Shorter routes, shorter completions and, as a result, more contact for receivers. When you catch a pass, you get hit.
Antonio Brown led the NFL with 129 receptions last season but averaged barely 13 yards per catch. The Steelers targeted Brown 181 times for him to catch those 129. Even when passes fall incomplete, receivers get hit. Those hits add up.
The Lions threw Johnson 204 passes in 2012 when he caught his 122. The Redskins threw Pierre Garcon 181 passes in 2013 when he led the NFL in receiving with 113 catches, and the Broncos threw Demaryius Thomas 184 passes a year ago when he finished as the runner-up to Brown with 111 catches.
The elite receivers command and demand the football. Reggie Wayne was thrown 195 passes in 2012, Andre Johnson 181 passes in 2013, Roddy White 180 passes in 2011, and Fitzgerald a 173 in 2010. That’s a lot of passes that translate into a lot of catches and a lot of hits.
Bryant fancies himself as a physical receiver. He’s been Michael Irvin reincarnate for Jason Garrett’s Cowboys. Like Irvin, Bryant isn’t going to run away from defensive backs. Not with 40 times in the upper 4.5s. DeSean Jackson he’s not. So Bryant is going to deliver blows and absorb blows on his routes and receptions.
Dallas targeted him 159 times in 2013, 137 in 2014. His workload figures to increase in 2015 with the NFL rushing champion departing Dallas for Philadelphia this offseason. And with a franchise-tag salary of $12.8 million due Bryant this season — a sizable jump from the $3.148 million he pocketed a year ago — you can bet the Cowboys will get their money’s worth out of him.
But Bryant doesn’t want the franchise tag. He wants a long-term deal worth upwards of $100 million with a large chunk of it guaranteed. Johnson was guaranteed $60 million and Fitzgerald $50 million. The Cowboys could shower those same riches on Bryant and in all likelihood love his 2015 season when he’s 27 and his 2016 season when he’s 28. But does he too fall off the cliff when he turns 29?
No one anticipated the dramatic decline of Johnson and Fitzgerald, certainly not the Lions and Cardinals. And the Cowboys have a history of giving bad contracts to wide receivers. See Roy Williams and Miles Austin.
The Cowboys gave Williams a $54 million deal in 2008 at the age of 27 and he never caught more than 40 passes in any of his three seasons in Dallas. The Cowboys also gave Austin $54 million contract extension in 2010 at the age of 26 and he was done by the time he was 29, catching only 24 passes, none for TDs.
So it’s easy to understand why the Cowboys would want Bryant to play for the franchise tag this season — and next season as well, for that matter. That’s their right under the NFL collective bargaining agreement. If the new wall for receivers is 29, you wouldn’t want a descending receiver as one of your highest-paid players with five years left on his contract.