Mostly True:

PolitiFact steers its way through a statement about a projected 500 percent increase in traffic near a Northwest Austin development.

A chunk of residential Northwest Austin has bridled at the prospect of a low-rise office park becoming much more. Our attention was drawn to yard signs suggesting the towering redevelopment at the southwest corner of Spicewood Springs Road and MoPac Boulevard (Loop 1) would dramatically increase the area’s traffic.

“500% more traffic here?” say the small signs that have popped up on roadsides near where Dallas-based Spire Realty Group LP is seeking a zoning change to build up Austin Oaks, an office complex with 12 buildings of two to three stories each. In a version of its proposal made public in 2014, Spire said that on the parts of the site closer to MoPac, it wanted to build two office build-

ings of 17 stories each; those plans have since been trimmed to 10-story buildings or so, according to Steve Drenner, an Austin lawyer representing Spire in its zoning case.

Initial plans, also since modified per Drenner, called for up to 610 apartments and townhomes in the three- to five-story buildings, plus retail and restaurant space. The soonest construction was planned to start was around 2020, after existing office leases expire.

The “500%” signs don’t reveal any group or person as the originator or sponsor. By phone, Ann Denkler, a volunteer with a coalition opposing the redevelopment, told us the group did not create them.

Unable to deduce who put them there, we were curious about the signs’ claim about future traffic levels in the area.

We reviewed traffic studies for the project on file with the city, dated a year apart.

Each study presents predicted “unadjusted daily trips” in the area should the project be built out with predicted increases ranging from more than 300 percent to more than 480 percent.

Generally, “unadjusted daily trips” means daily car trips in an area, a city official told us, without reductions accounting for trips internal to a development, say, or trips there on city buses.

The initial June 26, 2014, traffic impact analysis by Bury-AUS Inc. examined 14 nearby intersections and 11 proposed driveways.

It projected the redevelopment on completion in 2031 would generate an additional 20,736 unadjusted daily trips by car — which breaks out to an eventual 488 percent increase.

Most recently, a May 22 traffic impact analysis that factors in revisions to the developer’s plan pegged the rise in unadjusted daily car trips at 381 percent.

Drenner pointed out the May analysis found that once adjustments are made to account for car trips internal to the development, the projected increase would be 332 percent.

Drenner said, too, the developers are suggesting $1.5 million in spending to improve nearby streets and creation of a fund that would accumulate money for area road improvements.

Next, we wondered how much traffic near the site would increase if the developers added nothing and learned that analysts assume a 2 percent annual increase in car trips.

At our request, Golden calculated the 4,118 current unadjusted daily car trips would escalate 37 percent to 5,653 in 2031 — again, provided there’s no expansion on the site.

Our ruling

Yard signs posted in opposition to a proposed Northwest Austin redevelopment say, “500% more traffic here?”

Traffic studies filed in 2014 based on the developer’s original proposal support the 500 percent figure, yet the developer later submitted a revised plan, and its latest traffic analysis suggests at most a 381 percent increase in daily car trips, still a substantial spike.

Perhaps the project and predicted traffic effects will continue to change.

For now, taking into account the information available when the signs were made, we rate the claim Mostly True.