BREAKING DOWN THE COLTS AT TEXANS

When: 7:25 p.m., Thursday (KEYE/NFL Network)

Story line: How bad is Andrew Luck’s injured right shoulder? Is Luck, even at 60 or 70 percent, good enough? And will the Colts’ Andre Johnson, the Texans’ all-time leading receiver, shine in his first shot against his old team?

Line: Even. Obviously, it will move in the Colts’ favor if Luck is cleared to play.

Betting trends: Indianapolis is 2-2 straight up, but 0-4 against the spread. Baltimore (0-3-1) is the only other winless team vs. the line. Houston is 0-4-1 ATS in its last five against Indy and is mired in a 6-12 ATS run in home games since 2012.

Key stats: Indianapolis has won 15 consecutive AFC South Division games.

Colts win if ... Luck plays. Since losing his first start in his hometown of Houston, Luck is 5-1 against the Texans with 14 TDs and three INTs. But he’s playing hurt this year, with five TDs, seven INTs and the worst rating among any qualifying QB. The offensive line is under duress to do a better job pass-blocking and create some creases for Frank Gore.

Texans win if ... Arian Foster gets untracked. The Houston bell cow gained 10 yards on eight carries in his season debut last week. Foster has averaged 6.3 yards per pop and rushed for five TDs an 505 yards in four home games vs. Indy. This offense ranks 24th with just 19.3 points per game, although that is better than Indy’s 18.0.

Did you know? Since the NFL ramped up its Thursday TV package in 2006, Indianapolis is 9-0 on this night, winning every one of them away from home.

PREDICTION

Indianapolis 27, Houston 21: Neither team looks good. Nobody in the AFC South is worth a darn. The Colts, at least, have pedigree. But this pick is predicated on Luck’s health. If he plays and doesn’t get knocked out, he lifts his team in a way that neither Ryan Mallett nor Brian Hoyer can. The Texans’ 48-21 blowout loss in Atlanta shows they’re nowhere close.