WHY STORMS COULD SOAK CENTRAL TEXAS THIS WEEK
Up to 3 inches of rain possible, with Tuesday most likely for storms.
Forecasters say changing weather patterns Monday will not only snap a six-day streak of 100-degree temperatures but also deliver significant rain to the metro area for the first time in almost a month.
For weeks, a high-pressure system has been sitting on Central Texas, trapping warm air and maintaining triple-digit temperatures in the region, like the lid on a pot of boiling water. But that high-pressure system is mov- ing westward this week, and that will allow unstable air from the east to move into the region and increase the chances for rain and cooler temperatures starting Monday, the National Weather Service says.
The unstable air, in the form of two low-pressure systems arriving from Louisiana and the Gulf of Mexico, will push into Central Texas throughout the week, with the highest likelihood of rain — a 60 percent chance of storms — on Tuesday, forecasters say. Cumulative rainfall totals of up to 3 inches will be possible across South and Central Texas from Monday evening through Wednesday, the weather service says.
So far only 0.04 inch of rain has been recorded at Camp Mabry in July, a month that normally sees 1.49 inches.
Austin has recorded 15 days of 100-degree temperatures this year, but Sunday’s reading of 101 at 5 p.m. might be the last triple-digit temperature at Camp Mabry for at least a few days, according to the weather service. The shifting weather patterns will cap daily temperatures at below-normal highs.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, when skies will be cloudiest and rain chances are highest, temperatures will climb no higher than 93 or 94, forecasters say.
Even with rain chances diminishing to about 20 percent Thursday, temperatures will top out at about 95. By Friday, cloudiness will decrease and temperatures will resume flirting with the 100-degree mark.
Forecasters don’t antic- ipate much flash flooding from the rain this week because soils in the Austin metro area remain relatively dry after several arid weeks. But the rain could provide welcome relief to areas seeing renewed drought conditions or counties under burn bans.
According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor data released Thursday, about 13.1 percent of the state — including the eastern edge of Williamson County — is experiencing abnormally dry conditions or moderate drought. Meanwhile, 77 Texas counties were under a burn ban Friday, including Travis, Hays, Bastrop, Burnet and Caldwell counties.
However, the prospect of rain probably won’t stem the slow evaporation of Lake Travis under this summer’s above-normal heat. The lake was 97 percent full Sunday, according to the Lower Colorado River Authority, and its elevation was about 679.4 feet above mean sea level and dropping.