A land without favorites
Everyone not named Iowa State or Kansas could be Big 12 contender.
College football is smitten with favorites.
Alabama is everybody’s choice in the SEC. Ohio State and Michigan are the heavies in the Big Ten. Louisville and Clemson represent the teams du jour in the ACC. It’s Stanford or Washington in the Pac-12.
Even a couple of the non-Power Five conferences have obvious front-runners: Houston in the American Athletic and San Diego State or Boise State in the Mountain West.
So boring. The real action is in the Big 12, where everyone not named Iowa State or Kansas could be a contender.
“I don’t think anyone is going to be dominant,” said Baylor coach Jim Grobe, whose No. 13 Bears are the highest-ranked Big 12 team in the polls but are precariously thin.
Grobe certainly doesn’t see his team as the favorite.
“Oh, no, not at all,” he said. “I don’t think anybody feels comfortable or knows how their team is going to be in the next two or three games.”
West Virginia joins Baylor as the last of the unbeatens in the league, but the Mountaineers aren’t even ranked.
“I’d like to think we’re a chal-
lenger for the (Big 12) title,” said Mountaineers coach Dana Holgorsen. “If you look back at the league, the favorite doesn’t win it. We don’t even know who the favorite is right now.”
Oklahoma was No. 1 in the Big 12 preseason poll, generally a kiss of death. Since the Big 12 abandoned its two-division format after 2010, only once has the preseason favorite finished on top. The Sooners don’t look the part so far in 2016, although in fairness their two losses are to top-six teams.
A composite of computer rankings has the Big 12’s top three as Baylor, West Virginia and Oklahoma. The stats and odds site at teamrankings. com gives the Sooners the best percentage (37.3) to win the Big 12, followed by Baylor (24.1) and, interestingly, Kansas State (10.2). Texas is seventh at 3.3 percent.
No Big 12 team has run the table under the current round-robin format. An 8-1 team has won the league title for five years in a row, but a 7-2 mark likely will be good enough in 2016.
With nonconference play finished, here’s a snapshot of the eight teams with a chance to top the Big 12, in order of our power poll:
Baylor: If the Bears defense is for real (11th in NCAA scoring D, 22nd in total D), they might have the best-balanced team, but their depth is a serious concern, and injuries could make the Bears extremely vulnerable. West Virginia: Next to Baylor, the Mountaineers have the nicest blend of running and passing and probably the premier offensive line. Their bend-don’tbreak defense isn’t getting a lick of pressure, however.
Oklahoma: Any of these teams would be 1-2 had they faced Ohio State and Houston, but Baker Mayfield appears to have regressed, and the Sooners aren’t creating any turnovers. Oklahoma State: The most experienced team in the league, one that was 10-3 last year, will, for all intents and purposes, be knocked out of the race if the Cowboys lose at home to Texas. Texas: A quarterback and offensive coordinator have been found. On the flip side, the Longhorns had better hope their NCAA total defense ranking (66th) is more indicative of that unit than the 107th ranking for scoring defense.
TCU: If Kenny Hill ditches his slow starts, the Horned Frogs could make a run. They are No. 4 nationally in total offense and No. 62 in total defense, which isn’t bad in this league.
Kansas State: Sleeper alert. The Wildcats, who had four players on the Big 12 preseason defensive team, are No. 1 in the nation in total D and No. 5 in scoring D. If QB Jesse Ertz keeps improving ... . Texas Tech: The Red Raiders will not win the league, not while allowing 43.4 points and 531.3 yards per game. They could, however, win their fair share of shootouts and influence the race.