Trump is correct in claiming drop in illegal immigration at border

President Donald Trump is still promising to build a wall on the U.S.-Mexico border. But even before that, he says, border crossings are down.

“People want th e border wall,” Tr u mp said in an interview with The Associated Press. “They want to see the wall, they want to see security. Now, it just came out that they’re 73 percent down . ... That’s a tre- mendous achievement . ... Look at this, in 100 days, that down to the lowest in 17 years and it’s going lower.”

Trump’s wording didn’t specify what was the lowest in 17 years, but similar comments made by others in his administration indicate he was referring to appre- hensions at the southwest border by Border Patrol agents.

Historical data from the Border Patrol show that Trump’s claim is accurate.

Trump has used different time frames to make a case that fewer people are attempting to cross into the United States illegally.

He’s looked at year-over-year Marchborder apprehension data to say there’s been a 64 percent decline. He’s compared February 2017 numbers with November 2016 to say it’s gone down 61 percent. And he’s said there was

a 40 percent decline from January, the month he was inaugurated, to February.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection data show that in March 2017 agents made 12,193 apprehensions at the U.S.-Mexico border. It is the lowest number in at least 17 years, according to monthly Southwest border apprehension numbers since fiscal 2000.

Apprehension data are generally used as a metric to measure illegal immigration.

Experts have told us that Trump’s rhetoric has played a role in deterring illegal immigration, perhaps more so than his newly issued policies, which might take longer to implement on the ground.

“The recent dip in apprehensions likely does signify a trend, in particular as apprehensions typically rise in March and early spring,” said Michelle Mittelstadt, spokeswoman for Migration Policy Institute, a nonpartisan think tank that researches migration.

It’s still to be determined if it’s a temporary lull or a lasting decline, “but at this point it seems clear that would-be migrants are concerned about rising enforcement not just at the border but within the United States,” Mittelstadt said.

Apprehensions at the Southwest border peaked in 2000 at a yearly total of 1.6 million and began a declining trend during the 2008 recession that has continued since, Mittelstadt said.

Aside from U.S. policies and enforcement, factors in Mexico have contributed to lower apprehension numbers, Mittelstadt said, including lower birth rates, increased educational levels and an improved economy.

Mittelstadt noted that as the number of Mexicans apprehended has gone down recently, about one-third of apprehensions last year were of Central American unaccompanied minors and families seeking refuge in the United States — presenting themselves to immigration authorities instead of evading detection.

Apprehensions of Central Americans outnumbered those of Mexicans in 2014 and 2016.

Our ruling

Trump said illegal immigration on the U.S.-Mexico border is “the lowest in 17 years.”

Border Patrol data support Trump’s claim. In March, Border Patrol recorded 12,193 apprehensions at the southwest border, the lowest in at least 17 years.

It’s worth noting that apprehension rates have been declining since the recession, and significantly so since their peak of 1.6 million in 2000.

Overall, we rate Trump’s claim True.