Progress reducing U.S. uninsured rate stalls

2016 first year since passage of ACA that number did not fall.

Five years of progress reducing the number of Americans without health insurance has come to a halt, according to a government report out Tuesday.

The report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that 28.6 million people were uninsured in 2016, unchanged from 2015. It was the first year since passage of the health care overhaul in 2010 that the number of uninsured did not decline.

The uninsured rate for 2016 was 9 percent, an insignificant difference from 9.1 percent the previous year. When former President Barack Obama signed the Affordable Care Act in 2010, the uninsured rate had been 16 percent.

Tuesday’s report suggests that the ACA was running low on gas in Obama’s final year as president. Premiums for private insurance were about to jump, and 19 states continued to refuse the law’s Medicaid expansion.

Now, the number of uninsured could start climbing again under policies being considered by President Donald Trump and congressional Republicans. The GOP bill passed by the House May 4 would limit Medicaid financing and curtail subsidies for many consumers buying private policies. Republicans also would repeal the requirement that most Americans carry health insurance or risk fines, a much-disliked aspect of the ACA designed to get healthy people into the coverage system and help defray the cost of covering those with health problems.

The legislation would lead to an increase of 24 million uninsured people within 10 years, according to congressional analysts. Under Obamacare, the number of uninsured had declined by 20 million since 2010.

“It’s disappointing that it’s stalled out,” said health economist Gail Wilensky, a Republican. “The real question is, will we be able to keep the gains that we have made?”

Critical of the ACA and co-author of an alternative plan by GOP policy experts, Wilensky nonetheless supports the goal of expanding coverage.

The new numbers come from CDC’s National Health Interview Survey, which is considered an authoritative source. Estimates for 2016 were based on data for nearly 97,500 people.

“It looks like we are kind of sticking a landing and holding on to the gains,” said Katherine Hempstead, who directs research on health insurance at the nonpartisan Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. “To increase coverage, you would have to see more states take up the Medicaid expansion, and some reforms to increase take-up in the individual (private) market.”

Could the number of uninsured start rising again? Absolutely, say both Wilensky and Hempstead.

“This release is really timely because it just helps everybody focus on what’s at stake,” said Hempstead.

States that expanded Medicaid were more effective at reducing the number of uninsured. Conversely, of the nine states that had significantly higher uninsured rates, only New Mexico expanded Medicaid.

Report suggests that the ACA was running low on gas in Obama’s final year as president.