Texas can’t stack up to USC
Trojans are too talented, and Horns don’t have a VY.
Vince Young has offered his school words of inspiration this week. It’s too bad Texas can’t find a way to suit him up Saturday night in Los Angeles.
The biggest reason why Southern Cal should easily handle the Longhorns isn’t the home-field advantage, the Trojans’ experience in big games, or even their significant advantage in projected premium-round 2018 NFL draft choices. Well, OK, it does have a little to do with the latter.
For the return match of the 2005 national championship game, USC owns a better version of Matt Leinart at quarterback and Texas doesn’t have anything close to VY, no matter which of the three play — or whether they all play.
The quarterback position has become almost as important at the highest level of college football as it is in the NFL. It’s hard to win a marquee matchup without a premier QB.
Sam Darnold, a redshirt sophomore completing 75 percent of his passes, is not only a first-round pick in the next draft, he could go No. 1 overall. He’s already won a Rose Bowl.
Shane Buechele is a nice passer but not a next-level QB. Jerrod Heard is a dangerous runner but can’t throw. Westlake’s Sam Ehlinger is a promising but raw freshman.
That mismatch probably accounts for about half the 16-point spread, bet up from an opening line of 14, incidentally.
A survey of the five-year recruiting rankings that make up these teams also tells a tale with the Trojans winning four of those years. For the 2013-17 cycle, here are the 247Sports composites for each school’s national rating:
USC: 13 / 10 / 2 / 10 / 4 = 7.8 average
Texas: 17 / 17 / 10 / 7 / 25 = 15.4 average
Both teams are living off their 2015 classes.
USC is starting 10 players from that second-ranked group, including three projected 2018 No. 1 draft choices — Darnold, inside linebacker Cam Smith and cornerback Iman Marshall. Running back Ronald Jones, another ’15 signee, is a possible second-rounder.
Darnold, by the way, was only the 12th-ranked player in that group and the 21st-rated player from California that year.
Texas starts eight players from its 10th-ranked 2015 class, including six on defense, led by five-star Malik Jefferson (who got a few too many stars). Preseason All-American left tackle Connor Williams was a mere three-star in that ’15 group.
Of course, the Longhorns do have the psychological advantage of being a huge underdog — hey, it works a lot of years against Oklahoma, doesn’t it? And Tom Herman’s 6-0 record at Houston against Top 25 opponents is worth considering.
USC also could be in letdown mode after throttling long-time nemesis Stanford 42-24 last week and now facing an unranked team that lost to Maryland.
Handicapping trends favor the Trojans. They are 7-2 against the spread in their last nine games, including 4-1 at home. The Longhorns are 2-9 vs. the line in their last 11 road trips. During USC’s 11-game winning streak, the average margin of victory is 18 points. From here, it looks like USC 42, Texas 28.