Catalonia vote looking neck-and-neck
Separatists and unionists vie again for legislative seats.
After Catalonia declared independence two months ago, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy of Spain took extraordinary control of the region and called elections, gambling that voters would punish the separatists who had propelled the nation’s worst constitutional crisis in decades.
That election now comes Thursday, but far from solving the conflict, it could just as easily complicate the task of governing the first of Spain’s 19 regions to have its autonomy stripped, placing the country in uncharted political terrain.
While Catalonia’s volatile politics have made predictions treacherous, polls indicate a potentially fractured result that may prolong the deadlock over the prosperous northeastern region’s status, even if it denies the separatists a victory.
Short of a surprisingly crushing victory by the unionists, any other outcome is unlikely to extinguish generations-old secessionist feelings that reached a boiling point this year in a region with a distinct language and culture.
“The result looks very uncertain and even once we know Thursday’s result, I expect more uncertainty rather than clarity,” said Kiko Llaneras, a political data analyst and journalist who published a study Tuesday for the newspaper El País compiling various recent polls.
“There are a lot of possible outcomes that could lead to a very long negotiation, lasting perhaps weeks if not months,” he added.
The vote will be Catalonia’s second since October to be held in extraordinary circumstances that have been used by both sides in the dispute to raise fundamental questions of democratic legitimacy.
The first vote, the independence referendum Oct. 1, was declared illegal by Spain’s courts and central government in Madrid, which sent thousands of police officers from outside the region to block it.
Even though there were clashes at polling stations and opponents of secession largely refrained from voting, the result was declared an overwhelming victory by Catalonia’s separatist leaders and used by the regional Parliament as the basis for its independence declaration.
Rajoy’s answer — direct administration from Madrid under emergency measures and new elections to shake up the regional Parliament — has in turn been criticized by his separatist opponents as an autocratic abuse of authority.
Among the biggest questions is how separatist politicians who are being prosecuted by Spanish authorities for rebellion could take their seats if they win. Some remain in prison. Others are free on bail but face 30-year sentences.
Carles Puidgemont, whom Rajoy dismissed as leader of the region, has been campaigning from Belgium, from where he has refused to be put on trial in Spain.
Despite early concerns that separatist politicians, parties and voters would boycott a vote considered illegitimate by some, the current consensus is that turnout may actually be at a record high.
The fear of being politically sidelined has prompted all sides to enter the fray, as politicians have cast the election as a make-or-break one for Catalonia.
The exceptional circumstances of the election have polarized both politicians and the public. The most recent polls show the main unionist and separatist parties neck-and-neck, with each side possibly falling narrowly short of a parliamentary majority.
The follow-up negotiations to form a government could prove complicated. The main separatist parties, whose majority was already fragile, are no longer running on the joint ticket that brought them into office in 2015.
Should they win, they have not agreed on how to revive a coalition that has been further strained by the turmoil of the last few months.