Can Big 12 help Kansas do heavy lifting?
Conference has had only one Final Four team out of 32 bids.
The Big 12 is due. Make that overdue.
In four of the past five years, the Big 12 has been the No. 1 conference in the Ratings Percentage Index. It racked up 32 NCAA Tournament bids from 2013 to 2017, yet produced only one of the 20 Final Four teams — Oklahoma in 2016. What gives? “It’s hard to say for sure,” Sooners coach Lon Kruger said Monday. “We need to validate what we’ve done over the first four months.
“I don’t think it’s one thing. Our double round robin (schedule) is a tough grind; it can wear you out, and that may contribute to it. Sometimes it’s the matchups. In the NCAA Tournament, matchups are more significant than anything else. Also, there is lots of parity out there. The margin for success is very thin.”
Kansas State coach Bruce Weber said the Big 12’s vaunted depth — seven of its 10 teams were invited to the NCAAs and two more are headed to the NIT — might work against it in March.
“We’ve got great talent 1 through 10, better than any league in the country,” Weber said, “but I’m not sure our top teams are better than other power conferences’.”
Kansas, the 14-time defending league champion and a No. 1 or No. 2 NCAA Tournament seed for nine years in a row, last appeared in the Final Four in 2012, finishing as the runner-up to Kentucky. The Jayhawks won it all in 2008.
KU carries the weight of the Big 12 world on its shoulders, and the burden often has been crushing, resulting in several early round flameouts, although the Jayhawks reached the Elite Eight in each of the past two years.
Kansas is the No. 1 seed in the Midwest Region. The good news is that the Jayhawks face games in Wichita, Kan., and Omaha, Neb. The bad news is the Midwest bracket looks to be the World Cup’s equivalent of the Group of Death, with Duke, Michigan State, Auburn and Clemson all stacked behind the Jayhawks.
In Vegas, Kansas has the seventh-best odds to win the national title at 14-1. Yet Duke (6-1) and Michigan State (8-1) both are ahead of KU, which relies so heavily on 3-point shooting.
Jayhawks coach Bill Self knows the pressure is squarely on his flagship program, but he would like to see other conference teams make some runs, too.
“I do think we need to perform better in the tournament — there’s no doubt about it,” Self said. “We need multiple teams advancing to the second weekend and toward San Antonio. So much of this depends on matchups and catching a few breaks. I’m not sure we’ve caught a lot of breaks the last few years.
“What made our league so strong is that nine teams could easily have gotten into the NCAA Tournament. That’s pretty phenomenal. Now it’s time to show what made us so special.”
Is anyone but Kansas capable of reaching the Final Four in San Antonio?
West Virginia (40-1) and Texas Tech (45-1) are the only other Big 12 teams with less than 150-1 title odds.
The Red Raiders are seeded third in the East, where the Mountaineers are a No. 5 seed. Tech has the distinct advantage of playing this week’s games in Dallas and is on the other side of the regional bracket from favored Villanova.
On the flip side, while AllBig 12 point guard Keenan Evans and company form an experienced squad, Tech lacks an impressive NCAA Tournament pedigree and could use a big man.
The Mountaineers have had tournament success, being a Sweet 16 team in two of the past three years and a Final Four participant in 2010. They also have senior leadership in guards Jevon Carter and Daxter Miles, but WVU finished last in the league in field-goal percentage and will be hardpressed to make enough shots to win four games in a row against good teams.
TCU, on the other hand, shoots the ball about as well as anyone, leading the Big 12 and ranking eighth in the NCAA at a 49.9 percent clip. What is likely to sink the Horned Frogs is an inability to stop opponents from making shots, too. TCU is 104th in defensive efficiency, according to statistical analyst Ken Pomeroy.
K-State is stuck in the 8 vs. 9 game in the South Region. So the Wildcats might beat Creighton before getting decked by Virginia.
Texas, 94th in KenPom offensive efficiency, is too flawed to be expected to survive the first week, and Oklahoma, 2-8 in its past 10 games, looks to be a one-and-done.
“I hope our league does well because no matter what happens over the first 31 or 32 games, the narrative is pretty much defined by how well you do in March,” TCU coach Jamie Dixon said.