Trump pushes for fast deal on renegotiated NAFTA pact

The Trump administration is hoping to pull off a quick win for NAFTA by aiming for a provisional pact as early as next week. A look at the political calendar explains why that’s all it’s likely to get.

Talks between the U.S., Canada and Mexico to revamp NAFTA that started in August missed an initial end-2017 deadline, and have been moving slowly in 2018. But President Donald Trump has been ramping up his trade agenda this year, and a conditional deal on NAFTA 2.0 would be a victory for him just months before midterm elections in Congress that will shape the rest of his term. American lawmakers and business groups want the U.S. to stay in the pact, which Trump has threatened to quit.

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer has begun floating the idea of a deal in principle.

The Trump administration is aiming to announce a preliminary deal at a summit in Peru next week, according to people familiar with the talks.

That kind of stopgap would be “largely designed to keep the markets calm,” said Dan Ujczo, an Ohio-based trade lawyer at Dickinson Wright. But it would likely stop short of a formal agreement the three countries could sign, let alone embark on the arduous process of seeking approval in their respective legislatures.

In other words, Trump may get his deal in principle, but it may be months, even years, before an offi- cial updated NAFTA comes into force.

Here are the important dates coming up for the talks:

■ April 13: The Summit of the Americas.

The U.S. is pushing to announce a framework deal at a leaders’ summit in Peru from April 13-14.

The administration is hosting Mexican and Canadian counterparts this week in Washington to try and achieve a breakthrough in the discussions.

■ May 1: Steel and aluminum tariffs.

Trump exempted Canada and Mexico from his new tariffs of 25 percent on steel and 10 percent on aluminum indefinitely, and then added a May 1 expiration on the exemption. Unless that’s extended — the U.S. has said it could be — Mexico and Canada will be slapped with new tariffs and face new political pressure to dig in on NAFTA.

■ May or earlier: Start U.S. process for approval in Congress.

Lighthizer has said he wants to pass a new NAFTA in the current Congress. That raised eyebrows, as time is running out and may already have.

Under U.S. trade law, the administration has to clear a long set of procedural hoops before a deal can be put to a vote. Even in a best-case scenario, the process would take months. For example, the U.S. International Trade Commission has 105 days after a deal is signed to analyze the economic impact. Then there’s the fact that Lighthizer would have to actually get enough votes, which seems a tall order with big divides remaining on issues that are crucial to major U.S. states.