Poll: Cruz-O’Rourke race too close to call
Incumbent holds 4744 percent lead, within margin of error.
The Senate race between U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, and U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke, D-El Paso, is “too close to call,” according to a Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday.
Cruz has 47 percent support from registered voters to O’Rourke’s 44 percent according to the poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.
The poll comes on the heels of surprising fundraising numbers posted by O’Rourke. In the first quarter of 2018, O’Rourke raised $6.7 million, while Cruz raised $3.2 million in the same period.
“Democrats have had a target on Sen. Ted Cruz’s back, and they may be hitting the mark. Once expected to ‘cruise’ to re-election, the incumbent is in a tight race with Democratic U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke,” Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll, said in a statement.
In a statement, O’Rourke touted his campaign strategy.
“Together, this grass-roots campaign has continued to show what’s possible when you reject PACs, special interests and pol-
itics as usual,” he said. “We’re going to continue running this campaign the right way — holding town halls everywhere across the state, taking our direction from those we want to represent and putting our trust completely with the people of Texas.”
The poll revealed that Cruz enjoys a 51 percent to 40 percent edge among men, a 50 percent to 43 percent advantage among voters 65 and older, and 59 percent to 34 percent edge among white voters.
O’Rourke enjoyed a 51 percent to 37 percent advantage among independents, a 47 percent to 43 percent edge among women, and a 50 percent to 34 percent advantage among voters 18-34 years old. O’Rourke also was the preferred candidate by wide margins among black and Hispanic voters.
Cruz is seeking a second term after coming in second in the 2016 race for the Republican presidential nomination. His popularity dipped in Texas after he initially didn’t endorse then-candidate Donald Trump, but he’s since been loyal to the president and has largely supported the Senate GOP leadership.
The poll shows growing disappointment with Cruz, said Matt Angle, director of the Lone Star Project, a Democratic research and communications political action committee.
“That’s a very good sign for Beto O’Rourke,” he said. “This should really encourage Texans, Texas activists and Texas donors to stay engaged.”
Mark Jones, a Rice University political science professor, said the survey overrepresents millennials, who mostly support O’Rourke, and underrepresents older and Anglo voters, who mostly support Cruz.
He said Cruz is still the clear front-runner. No Democrat has won statewide office in Texas since 1994.
“It’s likely to foster a greater enthusiasm among O’Rourke voters, enhancing their belief that he has a realistic possibility of victory,” though, Jones said of the poll. In early 2014, polling showed then-state Sen. Wendy Davis and then-Attorney General Greg Abbott in a close race for governor, he said. Abbott defeated Davis by 20 percentage points.
The poll also showed Abbott with a more comfortable edge than Cruz in his re-election campaign, with 49 percent favoring Abbott to 40 percent for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Lupe Valdez, and 48 percent supporting Abbott to 41 percent for Democratic candidate Andrew White. Valdez and White are running in the May 22 Democratic runoff.
The poll also said 52 percent of Texas voters disapprove of Trump, while 43 percent approve of him.
Quinnipiac University, located in Hamden, Conn., conducts national public opinion surveys. Pollsters surveyed 1,029 Texas voters.