For a U.S.-North Korea summit to work, sides must agree on what ‘denuclearization’ means.
SEOUL, South Korea — President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un will make history when they meet Tuesday in Singapore for the first-ever summit between the rival nations after decades of hostilities that have sometimes brought the world to the brink of war.
At stake are the threat of nuclear war, America’s strategic position in Northeast Asia, the future of U.S. military forces in South Korea and Trump’s stature as a global leader.
Nevertheless, expectations for a breakthrough in talks over the North’s nuclear weapons program are low. Many experts say they will be happy if the two sides could agree on the definition of one word — denuclearization.
The two leaders will meet at the Hotel Capella, a luxury resort on Sentosa Island. Strategic ramifications
Other countries, including China and Russia, are maneuvering to influence the summit’s outcome, which will have strategic ramifications far beyond the Korean Peninsula.
South Korean President Moon Jae-in is reportedly poised to jump on a flight to Singapore for a possible trilateral summit with Trump and Kim as he pushes for a deal to formally end the Korean War, which was suspended but not officially concluded by an armistice in 1953 after three years of fighting.
“Three-way discussions among the South, the North and the U.S. are underway on the declaration of an end to the war,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Noh Kyu-duk said Thursday at a press briefing in Seoul.
And the formerly reclusive 34-yearold North Korean leader has emerged as an in-demand statesman.
He traveled twice to China to meet with President Xi Jinping, held two summits with Moon in the Demilitarized Zone and has received an invitation to visit Russia in the fall.
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe met with Trump on Thursday at the White House.
Define denuclearization
A key sticking point is the U.S. demand for the complete, verifiable and irreversible dismantling of North Korea’s nuclear weapons apparatus, frequently referred to by the acronym CVID.
North Korea has declared a commitment to denuclearization but seeks a “phased and synchronous” approach that would include economic incentives and other rewards for each step.
Trump made the right move by signaling he’s prepared for a longer process, said Eric Gomez, a defense analyst with the Washington-based libertarian think tank the Cato Institute.
“Trump has signaled a lot more flexibility in his approach and has lowered his expectations for the summit,” Gomez said in a phone interview.
“It won’t produce any sort of big lasting solution, but it will start getting the U.S.-North Korean relationship in a better place overall and, hopefully, create opportunities to keep talking and to keep diplomacy active,” he added.
North Korea has an estimated 60 nuclear warheads and has made strong advances in developing delivery systems, although technical hurdles remain. It test-fired three intercontinental ballistic missiles and conducted its sixth and most powerful nuclear test last year.
Former diplomats say it’s highly doubtful that Kim Jong Un would be willing to give up his hard-won weapons, which he sees as regime security.
But Kim also has vowed to improve the economy of his impoverished nation and is eager to get relief from U.S.-led international sanctions aimed at depriving him of much-needed foreign currency.
Robert Gallucci, a Georgetown University professor who was the chief negotiator with North Korea during the Bill Clinton administration, said Trump will score a win if he gets Kim to agree on a definition for denuclearization.
But he stressed the end goal must be not only for the North to give up its nuclear weapons but also the components to make them.
Early gains
One of the early casualties of the diplomatic process appears to be the Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign, which the president has touted as a key factor in bringing the North to the table.
Trump said last week that he no longer wants to use that term and decided to suspend plans to impose what he described as hundreds of unilateral sanctions that had been readied.
The tough measures that have been slapped on the North as tensions rose in recent years stand, but experts say there’s evidence that China and other North Korean allies already have moved to relax the implementation that had begun to have an effect.
“North Korea in this process has very little to lose,” Yun Sen, a co-director of the East Asia program at the Stimson Center, said in a phone interview.
“It has manipulated the diplomatic situation to force China to re-engage,” she said. “I think on the U.S. side, I don’t think North Korea has really given up anything other than its provocative policy.”
South Korea has already taken steps to improve bilateral relations and eventually restore economic ties with the North, starting with the landmark summit between Moon and Kim on April 27 when they embraced warmly in the truce village in the heavily fortified border.
Seoul and Washington have insisted their alliance remains strong, but Moon was clearly shocked when Trump announced on May 24 that he was canceling the summit without consultation.
The South Korean leader quickly agreed to a request by the North for a second summit the next day.
“Going forward, if Trump wants to prevent decoupling he’s going to have to do a better job of alliance management with the South,” Gomez said.
The communist state also has traditionally linked denuclearization to the removal of U.S. troops and other assets from the region. The Americans provide protection to South Korea and Japan under a so-called nuclear umbrella.
Trump and Defense Secretary Jim Mattis have insisted that the presence of some 28,500 U.S. servicemembers stationed in South Korea is not up for negotiation.