Study: Rising seas may routinely flood more than 10,000 Texas homes by 2045

More than 10,000 homes along the Texas coast could flood twice a month by 2045 if sea level rise from climate change continues, researchers say.

The findings are part of a new study from the Union of Concerned Scientists, which used property data from real estate website Zillow and sea level pro- jections from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to estimate how many coastal properties in the U.S. are at risk of chronic inundation by 2045 and 2100. The report’s core results are based on NOAA’s high sea level rise scenario, which researchers noted is “an appropriately conservative projection to use when estimating risks to homes.”

Persistent flooding could affect as many as 311,000 coastal homes in the U.S. — collectively worth $117.5 billion — in the next 30 years, the study found. In Texas, sea levels were projected to rise as much as 2.4 feet by 2045 and 7.9 feet by 2100.

By the end of the century, about 82,000 Texas homes that house more than 137,000 people could face chronic flooding due to ris-

ing sea levels. Those homes are currently worth about $17 billion and contribute about $297 million in property tax revenue each year.

Galveston and Brazosport were identified as having the most properties at risk of chronic inundation by 2045, with 3,233 and 1,521 homes, respectively.Thosehomeshave acombinedworthofmorethan $1.1 billion and house an estimated 7,945 people.

Rising seas would flood the Coastal Bend by 2100, according to the study. In the bustling beach town of Port Aransas, more than 10,500 homes worth an estimated $3.1 billion would be imperiled by chronic flooding by the end of the century. About 6,300 homes in the nearby towns of Rockport and Fulton would likewise be at risk.

The study also found that Texas would have the fifth-highest number of commercial properties at risk of chronic inundation by the end of the century. More than 6,600 properties worth approximately $3 billion would experience persistent flooding.

But the Union of Concerned Scientists noted that 80 percent of Texas homes at risk would avoid chronic flooding by 2100 if the U.S. and other nations meet the Paris climate accord’s goal of holding warming below 2 degrees Celsius.

Texas state agencies typically don’t fold science-based climate change predictions into their planning, and many top-ranking Texas Republicans resist the conclusions of scientists that fossil fuel emissions contribute to a warming planet.

Gov. Greg Abbott, for example, has said more investigation on the matter is required. Earlier this year, Wayne Christian, a Republican commissioner of the Texas Railroad Commission, the oil and gas regulatory agency, said, “We don’t know whether manmade greenhouse gases are impacting our climate in a harmful way.”

Carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases act to trap heat from the sun in the Earth’s atmosphere, according to scientists, leading to a warming planet.

Sea level rise from global warming already is having an impact on coastal cities nationwide. A NOAA report published this month found that high-tide flooding now occurs twice as frequently as it did 30 years ago. Galveston and Sabine Pass were among five cities with the highest number of flood days last year.

State Climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon said the implications of the Union for Concerned Scientists’ report are “spot on” and serve as an “importantwake-upcall”about a risk that can go unnoticed.

“We tend to think about climate risk in terms of extreme weather, and damages and visible impacts. But as homes become more subject to flooding, we have declines in property values,” he said

If Texas tides rise to the levels suggested in the report, Nielsen-Gammon said, hurricane storm surges will become more threatening.

“Two feet of sea level rise means every single hurricane that makes landfall has a higher storm surge,” he said.

But Nielsen-Gammon did cite caveats about the report’s methodology; he said the researchers used a “simple” elevation data set that did not account for levees.

“It really is up to individual communities to more precisely assess their level of risk,” he added.