IS EXPERIENCE THE KEY IN WORLD CUP ROUND OF 16?
If that’s the case, Brazil, France, Spain and Argentina are the teams that might have a leg up heading into the knockout round.
Roberto Martinez believes the best advantage in a World Cup is to have won one before.
“To be a favorite in a World Cup you need to have the know-how of winning a World Cup or have a reference of a previous generation that won the World Cup,” the Belgian coach said. “So for me there’s only five nations that (have) that.”
That’s good news for Brazil, France, Spain and Argentina, who have all won World Cups since 1986 and made it to the knockout phase in this summer’s tournament.
Not so much for the likes of Mexico, Belgium, England and Croatia, who have all impressed in Russia but fail the Martinez litmus test.
This could be the World Cup that breaks that model, though. Germany, after all, brought nine players and a coach to Russia from the team that won a World Cup four years ago, and that didn’t help; Die Mannschaft was shut out twice and finished last in its group.
Among the teams that went through instead? Russia, which had never advanced out of group play. Those who expected this World Cup to play out as predicted gave up on that idea long ago.
So now that the tournament is half over and the field is half gone, it’s time to look back at what’s happened and ahead at what’s to come.
Ten European nations reached the round of 16, the most for a single confederation since 1990. Four South American teams advanced, plus Mexico and Japan.
For the first time since 1982, no African team made it out of group play. But if the tournament was unkind to Africa — its final team was eliminated Thursday on a yellow-card tiebreaker — it’s been great for fans, with half of
the 48 group-stage games decided by one goal. Nine others ended in a draw.
Nine of the 16 teams in the knockout round are unbeaten while Croatia, Uruguay and Martinez’s Belgium are unbeaten and untied. Belgium has scored a tournament-high nine goals; Uruguay hasn’t allowed any.
Mexico, meanwhile, is chasing history of a different sort. El Tri has reached the round of 16 in seven consecutive World Cups, only to lose the last six times. Mexico, which has never won a World Cup elimination game outside its borders, did itself no favors this time by losing its final game of the group stage 3-0 to Sweden.
By finishing second, Mexico will open the round of 16 against Brazil rather than Switzerland. Its side of the bracket includes France, Argentina, Portugal, Belgium and Uruguay rather than Denmark, Russia and Colombia.
Then there’s Japan, which, along with host Russia, is the most surprising survivor of the first round. Japan came into the tournament lightly regarded and with a new coach, Akira Nishino, whose first competitive game on the international level was Japan’s World Cup opener with Colombia. Japan won that game, becoming the first Asian team to beat a South American side in a World Cup. Japan then became the first team to advance out of group play through a newly implemented tiebreaker: fewest yellow cards.
Russia and Japan are the only remaining Cinderellas. The rest of the final 16 is heavy with the usual suspects: France, Spain and Brazil, which have combined to win three of the last five titles.
All three made it through group play unbeaten, although with scares along the way. France faces Argentina in its first elimination game while Spain gets Russia and Brazil takes on Mexico, which has already beaten one former champion.
Then there’s Cristiano Ronaldo and Portugal, facing unbeaten and unscoredupon Uruguay. In the European Championships two years ago, Portugal didn’t win a group-play game, advancing to the second round on the strength of three draws.
It then ran the table, winning its next four — three in overtime or on penalty kicks — to win its first major international title.
A team like Portugal, comfortable playing under pressure, could do well in the elimination rounds, where the margin for error is gone and every mistake is magnified.
Perhaps that’s what Martinez was talking about when he said nothing in a World Cup is more important than the experience of having been there before.