Poll: Cruz leads by 9 points
93 percent who picked a candidate said their minds are made up.
U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, has a 9 percentage point lead over challenger U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke, D-El Paso, according to a poll of likely voters released Tuesday.
The Quinnipiac University poll has Cruz holding a 54 percent to 45 percent lead over O’Rourke. Ninety-three percent of those polled who picked a candidate said their minds were made up on the matter.
As in previous polls, white and male voters tend to favor Cruz; voters of color and women tend to favor O’Rourke.
“The Texas U.S. Senate race between Sen. Ted Cruz and Congressman Beto O’Rourke, and Democratic hopes for an upset win there, have boosted talk of a Senate takeover. These numbers may calm that talk,” Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University poll, said in an analysis accompanying poll results. “Congressman O’Rourke may be drawing big crowds and media attention, but Texas likely voters like Sen. Cruz better.”
The poll results come as the Cruz campaign has sought some daylight between it and O’Rourke’s in reliably red Texas. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report currently rates the U.S. Senate race
as “Lean R” — as opposed to “Likely R” or Solid R.”
A Quinnipiac poll in August of registered voters — not likely voters — had Cruz, seeking a second term, holding an apparent 6-point lead.
Another poll released in early August, by Texas Lyceum, had Cruz clinging to a 2-point edge over O’Rourke; the margin in that poll remained the same regardless of whether the respondents were likely or registered voters.
Earlier this month, Mick Mulvaney, the federal budget director, wondered whether Cruz would win, given his likability numbers.
But the new Quinnipiac poll gives Cruz a 52 percent favorability rating among likely voters.
The Cruz pick-me-up comes as the senator has drawn attention for his comments alleging that O’Rourke would ban barbecue in Texas and for a campaign donation solicitation marked “summons” that has the appearance of official government correspondence.
About a quarter of likely voters said immigration is the most important issue in their vote, 21 percent list health care as the most important, 16 percent cite the U.S. Supreme Court and 15 percent say the economy.
The poll found that Texas likely voters are evenly divided, 49 percent to 49 percent, on President Donald Trump’s job performance: 86 percent of Republicans approve of his performance; 93 percent of Democrats disapprove of his performance. Independent voters were split, with 58 percent approving and 40 percent disapproving.
From Sept. 11-17, Quinnipiac University surveyed 807 Texas likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. Interviewers called landlines and cellphones.