WHY AGGIES FACE LONG ODDS AGAINST SABAN, TIDE
COLLEGE STATION — The point spread established for Saturday’s Texas A&M-Alabama game doesn’t appear realistic.
Sure, Alabama is the defending national champion and ranked No. 1. The Crimson Tide rarely lose at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Since A&M joined the SEC in 2012, the Tide have dropped two home games — once to the Aggies in November 2012 and then to Mississippi in September 2015.
But oddsmakers believe Alabama will maul the Aggies by more than 27 points.
It seems excessive, but maybe
it’s realistic. It’s based on Alabama’s ability to roll to a pile of points while its first-team offense is on the field.
The Tide top the country in scoring offense, averaging 56.7 points. For context, through the first three games a year ago, Bama scored an average of 35.3. The Tide’s season average was 37.1.
There aren’t many trash-time
points in this year’s average. Alabama has overwhelmed its foes by halftime. In games against Louisville, Arkansas State and Mississippi, the Tide have scored more than one third of their points in the first quarter. They’ve scored only 17 in the three fourth quarters combined.
What’s the difference between this year and last? It’s sophomore quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, the lefty who will be starting only his fourth game. Tagovailoa was mentored by former Heisman winner Marcus Mariota.
Last January, Tagovailoa went from second-teamer to improbable Bama icon in two quarters of foot- ball. Coming off the bench in the national championship game, he threw three touchdown passes, includ- ing the 41-yard winner to fellow freshman DeVontae Smith in overtime.
In previous seasons, Alabama coach Nick Saban has directed his quarterback to be more of a game manager. Tagovailoa, however, is a dynamic playmaker. He’s thrown eight touchdowns with no interceptions. And he’s a perfect 13-for-13 with six touchdowns on thirddown throws. That’s a devastating stat for any opposing defense scouting Alabama’s offensive tendencies.
A&M coach Jimbo Fisher, who called plays for Saban when the two worked for LSU, sees a big change in Bama’s passing offense.
“I think they’ve opened it up more; they’re throwing more drop-back,” Fisher said this week. “There’s a larger volume of that in what they’re doing. Everybody has it on third down, but on first and second down things you’re seeing more true volume of passing game, you’re seeing more dropback passing game than they did before. No doubt.”
A&M has been susceptible to the big pass play in games against Northwest- ern State, Clemson and Louisiana-Monroe. The Aggies have allowed completions of 71, 64, 64, 44 and 40 yards.
And Tagovailoa has the luxury of a strong running game. Senior tailback Damien Harris has consecu- tive 1,000-yard seasons and is averaging 59 yards per game this year. Sophomore Najee Harris, who was the nation’s top recruit in 2017, leads the team in rushing, averaging 67 yards a game.
The A&M defense had some success in thwarting former starter Jalen Hurts in 2016 and 2017, although the Tide won both. But Hurts sees the field now only after Alabama has built a big lead.
Saban said when he looks at game film of A&M, he sees a tougher team.
“I think everybody that takes over a program is really working hard to establish the principles and values of the organization,” Saban said Monday. “The standard that you want people to work to in terms of effort, toughness, intangibles, discipline, things like that. Jimbo has obviously done a really good job of that.”
But given how Alabama is playing, the oddsmakers probably know what they’re doing in establishing the Tide as an overwhelming favorite against every team.