Expect the unexpected in this race
Outcome murky in Clinton, Trump feud
PHILADELPHIA — America is about to endure the closest, nastiest, most unpredictable presidential election in more than three decades.
Not since Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan ran against each other in 1980 has the choice been so stark, the warnings from each candidate about the other so dire, the likely outcome so murky.
Now that this year’s conventions are over, there is no clear victor. But watch upcoming polls. The leader in the first polls conducted after Labor Day has won the White House every election year since 1952.
“That’s when the dust settles. That is the person who ends up taking the oath of office,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. There is one exception. In 1980, the parties were tied at Labor Day, and the election didn’t swing until the final days.
On paper, Clinton wins if she follows the age-old Democratic playbook: Make sure African-Americans, Latinos, women and labor union members turn out in big numbers. Then she needs to add the liberals and young voters who so adamantly favored rival Bernie Sanders, voters who still need convincing.
“We need now to talk to people one on one,” said Sen. Debbie Stabenow, DMich.
Trump wins if he can stick to the anti-establishment narrative that lifted him from long-shot outsider to nominee, a plotline that helped his poll numbers a bit despite a discordant GOP convention in Cleveland.
“There’s something different this year,” said Brandon Bell, GOP chairman in Rhode Island. “People are fed up.”
But Trump also needs still-wary mainstream Republicans to back him.
Clinton, her supporters said, has to remind Democrats and undecided independents, who make up about 20 percent of the electorate, of her history fighting for their causes — and by painting Trump as unusually dangerous.
“Tell everyone to make a reality check,” said Rep. Al Green, D-Texas, whose congressional district is about one-third AfricanAmerican. Remind minority voters, he said, of the party’s history of strong support for civil rights.
Getting African-Americans to turn out in the sort of numbers President Barack Obama got, though, is going to be tough.
“There is only one Obama,” said state Rep. Gilda Cobb-Hunter, of Orangeburg, S.C., though he can be a big help if he gives Clinton the sort of full-throated support he offered at the convention.
Obama got 93 percent of the black vote in 2012 while winning 41 percent of the white vote. Black turnout was 66.2 percent, 2 points higher than whites. In 2004, black turnout was 60 percent. Clinton this year has outpolled Trump among African-Americans by about 7- or 8-to-1.
Trump’s path to victory has two lanes: Pound away at the anti-establishment message, and woo back Republicans who have been sharply critical and stayed away from last week’s convention.
More importantly, Trump needs to keep the campaign narrative focused on the throw-thebums-out mood that rocketed him from politically nowhere to the GOP nominee.
Trump’s other challenge is to keep people outraged for three more months. Circumstances can help. WikiLeaks is promising more data releases aimed at embarrassing Clinton.
There’s potential for another sort of email drama.
Republicans won’t let voters forget about Clinton’s use of a private email server while secretary of state.
“We’ve known from the beginning of this campaign that Clinton’s personal political history was going to be a drag on her candidacy,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute in New Jersey.
Clinton will counter by painting Trump as inept and all but insane.
“Imagine him in the Oval Office facing a real crisis. A man you can bait with a tweet is not a man we can trust with nuclear weapons,” she said Thursday.
The next pivotal campaign moment is likely Sept. 26, when Clinton and Trump are scheduled to debate in Hempstead, N.Y. Two more debates are to follow, in St. Louis on Oct. 9 and Las Vegas Oct. 19.