Study: 20M would lose health coverage under Trump plan
WASHINGTON — A new study that examines major health care proposals from the presidential candidates finds that Donald Trump would cause about 20 million to lose coverage while Hillary Clinton would provide coverage for an additional 9 million people.
The U.S. uninsured rate stands at a historically low 8.6 percent, mainly because of President Barack Obama’s health care law, which expanded government and private coverage. Trump, the Republican nominee, would repeal the law and replace it with a new tax deduction, insurance market changes and a Medicaid overhaul. Democrat Clinton would increase financial assistance for people with private insurance and expand government coverage as well.
The two approaches would have starkly different results, according to the Commonwealth Fund study released Friday.
The analysis was carried out by the RAND Corp., a global research organization.
One worrisome finding is that the number of uninsured people in fair or poor health could triple under Trump. It would rise from an estimated 2.1 million people under current laws to between 5.7 million and 7.1 million under Trump’s approach, depending on which of his policy proposals was analyzed.
The Trump proposals analyzed included his planned repeal of Obamacare as well as a host of replacement ideas consisting of a new income tax deduction for health insurance, allowing policies to be sold across state lines and turning the Medicaid program for low-income people into a block grant, which would mean limiting federal costs.
The study estimated that Trump’s repeal would increase the number of uninsured people from 24.9 million to 44.6 million in 2018.
The Clinton proposals analyzed included a new tax credit for deductibles and copayments not covered by insurance, a richer formula for health law subsidies, a fix for the law’s “family glitch” that can deny subsidies to some dependents and a new government-sponsored “public option” health plan.
Taken together, the analysis estimated that Clinton’s proposals would reduce the number of uninsured people in 2018 to 15.8 million, which translates to a gain of 9.1 million people with coverage.
Not included were Clinton’s idea for allowing middle-aged adults to buy into Medicare and her plan to convince more states to expand Medicaid.