Maryland’s lessons
The dynamics of Trump’s win in 2016 are the same as Hogan’s in 2014
Maryland might seem like the poster state for coastal elites who are out of touch with what’s going on in real America, but actually, we should have seen Donald Trump’s election coming. In retrospect, true-blue Maryland actually served as something of a bellwether for the dynamic that would propel Mr. Trump to the White House.
Gov. Larry Hogan rather famously refused to endorse the Republican nominee and looked somewhat pained whenever Mr. Trump’s name came up, but his upset victory over Anthony Brown two years ago turns out to have been a pretty good preview of 2016. Mr. Hogan may not be prone to outrageousness on a Trumpian level, but he is in some respects quite similar. Both are businessmen who have never previously held elective office. Both mounted change-campaigns at a time when voters were ready for them, and both built massive social media followings. Mr. Hogan ran against Annapolis, and Mr. Trump ran against Washington. Both had simple economic messages, and neither got bogged down in policy details.
And the Anthony Brown of 2014 was, in many respects, similar to the Hillary Clinton of 2016. He was next in line. He had the widespread backing of elected officials, union leaders and assorted activists. He was a bit stiff on the campaign trail, overly cautious and tightly managed. He put out hundreds of pages of white papers and policy positions. And while his Republican opponent inspired supporters to go to the polls, he failed to turn out his base. Sound familiar?
The lessons of 2016 for Democrats nationally are the same ones Maryland Democrats should have gotten in 2014: Voters don’t like coronations; they do respond to a clear message and authenticity; and after a while, they will want something new.
Putting those lessons into action isn’t easy, but it can be done; we’re not certain that the party has a better answer to Mr. Trump in 2020 than it does to Mr. Hogan in 2018. But it can be done. Anthony Brown proves it.
Two years after a humbling defeat, Mr. Brown hit the campaign trail again, running for Congress in the district being vacated by Rep. Donna Edwards. He ran a low-budget campaign largely free of advisers and managers. He appeared to actually be enjoying himself, and voters responded, pushing him through a highly competitive primary and giving him an easy win in Tuesday’s general election. “It was getting back to basics, getting back to fundamentals,” he said in an interview. “It was getting in touch with the voters, the constituents, my neighbors.” Can Democrats find a way to do that on a national scale? They’re going to have to try.