Where things stand with travel planning this year
Although you’re not traveling at all right now, chances are you’re thinking about when you can travel. Maybe later this summer, maybe fall, maybe for the holidays or even maybe next spring. When you look, you may see some attractive deals. But before you bite on anything, make sure to minimize your risk.
Reopening timetable.
Right now, it looks like reopening of major U.S. visitor centers will not be on a uniform timetable.
The exact schedule in any area will depend on a combination of the actual health situation in each location over the next few months and the policies of leadership in those areas. Between the nation’s two top beach areas, for example, the outlook is completely different: Florida has already started reopening beaches, while Hawaii remains tightly shut, and the difference in approach is more political than scientific. Most observers are optimistic for reopening in September or October.
Reopening outside the U.S. is even more problematic. Certainly, the nearby warm-weather beach destinations in Mexico and the islands will do as much as they can to be open for the winter season. In Europe — and especially in hard-hit Britain and Italy — there are no reliable estimates of the timetable when lockdowns and quarantines will be lifted. Ditto the many key Asian destinations.
Although airlines around the world are now down to about 5% of their normal schedules, they will probably be able to ramp up as quickly as demand recovers. But any ramp-up
Airlines.
in the rest of 2020 is likely to be at a much lower level than, say, late 2019, the last “normal” year. Most industry mavens say the airlines won’t be “normal” until 2021 at the earliest.
Advance fares for summer and fall are quite tempting right now, at least on some routes. Minimum transcon round-trip fares in basic economy are as low as $250 for June and $263 as far ahead as October. October fares to Europe start at just over $300. Oddly, that sort of low-ball pricing doesn’t extend to premium cabins. On transcon flights where basic economy is less than $300, premium economy currently lists at more than $1,100.
Hotels can hit normal pretty quickly — certainly enough to handle likely demands through the rest of the year. So far, however, I haven’t seen any great deals posted for fall. But the industry expects you to see them when destinations reopen.
Hotels.
Although the cruise lines might be able to ramp up quickly, most observers conclude that demand won’t. The impact of those horror stories about cruisers confined to cabins for weeks, then quarantined once on shore, will remain for a while. Even though you can expect some great rates, most
Cruises.
travelers won’t want to board a cruise ship until they’re convinced the pandemic is truly and completely over.
Clearly, it’s imperative that you keep a close watch on developments in any places you plan to visit. You do not want to arrive someplace only to find the main attractions closed, or even worse, a quarantine.
Above all, for the foreseeable future, don’t shell out any big bucks for any prepaid travel service unless it’s an absolute steal — and even then, think twice about it. When you pay in advance for an air ticket, cruise, tour or resort package, you’re risking that payment. Until COVID-19 is truly over, you’re lending a supplier money that you will have a tough time getting back if the situation hasn’t improved. Despite rules that require cash refunds, airlines are resisting and dragging their feet on refunds, and there are no comparable requirements at all for cruise lines and hotels.
All in all, the least risky travel this summer and fall is a road trip at home — wherever home might be. And once they reopen, there are worse places to go than the Great Smoky Mountains or Yellowstone.
Strategy.