BALTIMORE MAYOR A final push for undecided voters
With days remaining in campaign, each candidate sees path to victory
ELECTION 2020
Moira Graham finally got her ballot in the mail Wednesday. Now comes the hard part.
With just days remaining in the race for Baltimore’s next mayor, Graham, 67, must figure out who’s the best choice to lead the city in an election of unusually high consequence.
She wants someone who isn’t entrenched in the political establishment. But she’s also worried a political outsider won’t
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know how to run a big city.
“That’s where my dilemma is,” the Northwest Baltimore resident said.
Like Graham, more than a fifth of voters surveyed recently were still undecided about who to support in the June 2 Democratic primary, the election expected to determine who will become mayor.
Candidates are flooding mailboxes and TV screens with ads, but many traditional ways of winning over voters have been rendered irrelevant by the coronavirus pandemic that has taken more than 200 lives in the city.
Victory, on Election Day, will come down to two questions: Which candidate can best persuade ambivalent or undecided voters like Graham to support him or her; and which candidate can best rally a base of voters to the polls.
Traditionally, the core of Baltimore’s Democratic primary electorate has been made up of black women over 50. But with this year’s largely mail-in election, “there’s a lot of uncertainty around who is going to end up voting,” said Steve Raabe, president of OpinionWorks, the Annapolis-based firm that conducted the poll on the race for The Baltimore Sun, University of Baltimore and WYPR-FM.
The poll, released Wednesday, showed a statistical three-way tie between former Baltimore Mayor Sheila Dixon and former
For a lot of activities, particularly those outdoors, there is a gray area. With warmer weather, more families are heading out — and deciding for themselves what’s safe.
Experts have some advice: Outside is safer than inside, small groups are safer than large ones, 6 feet of distance is a must and no one should be sharing food, toys or other things. Wear a mask indoors or outside if you will be close to others.
“While the state has met the conditions for taking very careful early steps toward reopening, people should realize there is still virus circulating in the state with hundreds of new cases of COVID still being diagnosed every day in the state,” Dr. Tom Inglesby, director of the Center for Health Security of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, said via email.
He advised avoiding parties, church and other larger gatherings, as well as visits to elderly relatives or those with underlying health conditions.
Indeed, state health officials counted nearly 1,800 new cases Tuesday, the biggest single-day increase since the virus reached Maryland. In three months, the coronavirus has infected more than 42,000 people in the state and killed more than 2,000. About half of the people killed lived in nursing homes. Health officials are, however, encouraged by declines in the rate of cases that require hospitalization.
The glimmer of hope has left Lori J. Dodson of Annapolis wanting to resume travels. She too reached for the phone when Hogan lifted his stay-at-home order.
“The first thing I did was call Rehoboth Beach and see if I can schedule a vacation,” Dodson said.
Delaware has reported less than a quarter of the coronavirus cases that Maryland has. In the Delaware beach town of Rehoboth, restaurants may open indoor seating next month at 30% of an establishment’s capacity. In Baltimore City, meanwhile, restaurant seating remains prohibited.
Tiffany Duncan drove 10 hours from Georgia to visit her younger sister in Baltimore last week. Duncan was determined to celebrate her sister’s 31st birthday, even if they simply stayed in. Hogan’s order was a welcome surprise. With the city still closed, she called around for someplace open in the suburbs and settled on miniature golf and racing at the Go-Kart Track in White Marsh.
“The owner, he wiped down all the cars. Everyone had their masks on,” Duncan said. “I wasn’t nervous.”
The rules differ from White Marsh to Baltimore, or from Maryland to Delaware. This inconsistency — and the responsibility of making personal judgment calls — can stress out people already on edge from having been isolated for weeks, says Vaile Wright, a clinical psychologist and director of clinical research and quality at the American Psychological Association.
“We are social creatures, we like predictability and don’t like uncertainty, and we want to go back to our normal lives,” she said. “At the same time, we recognize that we need to stay safe. What is safe? There is a lot of uncertainty.”
Wright said the level of stress and anxiety is different for different people because of their tolerance and other factors, such as whether they have lost a job or a loved one, are trying to work at home while educating a child, or work on the front lines. Everyone has lost routines big and small, like seeing the same coffee barista or fellow commuter on the bus.
She said going outside to do “normal things” helps people mentally, though everyone has to assess what is safe for them when there is a gray area such as whether to wear a mask while running or to let children play near one another.
“The challenge for all of us is to identify reliable sources of information and make a personal risk assessment,” she said. “What are you prepared to do and not prepared to do based on your own health history? What is happening in your locale, and how much exposure you are getting. It’s also important to know your local ordinances . ... If you know the rules, it makes it easier to follow. But it can be a challenge to get information when the rules are fluid.”
Dayjai Sanchez felt safe enough to bring her family from North Baltimore for an afternoon outdoors at the Annapolis dock. unpopular in the city, for his plans to mark Memorial Day at Fort McHenry. Young asked the Republican to stay home.
Young also released a web ad in which he played clips of his opponents thanking him and crediting his leadership during the pandemic.
Young’s performance during the health crisis has been enough to convince Jennifer Watson, 39, that she should cast her vote for him.
“I see that he is trying to get the pandemic under control in his city,” she said.
While times of crisis can sometimes serve to unite a city around its mayor, it appears voters are also tying Young to Baltimore’s long-standing problems like violent crime. He leads a city that twothirds of residents feel is heading in the wrong direction, the poll found.
Other candidates believe the poll results illuminate a path forward for them. Scott, 36, was the choice of voters under age 50, and had support among black and white voters.
Scott is also among the most popular as voters’ second choice. So the campaign has an army of volunteers phone-banking and texting voters to try to win them over or firm up their support.
“People will turn out when you provide them vision and ideas,” Scott’s campaign manager Marvin James said.
Scott is running on a message of “transformational” and “generational” change. He has offered a 26-point plan that includes lowering the voting age for city elections to 16 and fundamentally remaking the top levels of city government, in part by changing the composition of the city’s spending board. His crime plan includes addressing root causes, such as lack of education and opportunity.
Scott’s campaign is endorsed by several local unions, and could be bolstered by the manpower those groups provide.
In 2011, members of Service Employees International Union 1199 knocked on 18,000 doors in the final two months of the election in support of their favored candidates. That included Scott, a political newcomer seeking a City Council seat.
Now that he’s running for mayor, the organization continues to back him.
Ricarra Jones, SEIU’s political director, said under normal circumstances it would mobilize “boots on the ground.” The union represents health care workers and typically rallies support among members by visiting them at work at hospitals and nursing homes — places that now don’t allow visitors for safety reasons. So, many members are taking on phone-banking shifts.
Miller, 64, has benefited from television ads that have been a near-constant in recent months, taking her from a virtually unknown candidate in January to a leading
Unlike the others, she did not want to remove her face mask, not even for an ice cream cone. She has an underlying condition of heart arrhythmia and worries: What if she were to contract the virus?
“I’m very cautious. Very nervous. Still not feeling comfortable with going into businesses,” she said.
Baruch Fischhoff, a risk analyst at Carnegie Mellon University, said before venturing out it may help to think the way he does. Organize the swirling facts and claims in your head by asking three questions:
■ How much disease is there where I want to go, such as a doctor’s office, a park, a bus or workplace?
■ How intensely will I be exposed to it, based on how long I’ll be there, how close people will be and how well it’s cleaned and ventilated?
■ How well can I control the risk, if I am exposed, by washing hands or wearing a mask?
“Reducing risk at each stage reduces overall risk,” he said.
He also said to consider only trusted sources of information such as news stories that explain the science rather than social media or pundits. Understand people’s bias when listening or discussing a plan.
“Ignoring the rest makes life much easier,” Fischhoff said. “Good evidence changes slowly, so one doesn’t even need to check these sources all that often.” contender. She, too, is zeroing-in on undecided voters.
In her ads, she has been stressing her background as a former T. Rowe Price executive and a Treasury official under President Barack Obama, but also her support for Police Commissioner Michael Harrison and continuing his crime fighting strategy.
Her campaign expects to roll out a final ad campaign playing up that Miller has lived in Baltimore for more than 30 years and been involved in dozens of organizations. She says she hears people criticize her for not having “deep roots” in the community and wants to refute that.
“I may be a political outsider,” she said, “but I am no stranger to Baltimore.”
Such a sustained media buy is possible because she contributed more than $2 million of her own money to her campaign.
According to the poll, Miller has the support of 31% of white voters, compared with 11% of black voters. The city’s population is about 63% black and 32% white, based on the latest census estimates.
As other candidates talk about Baltimore’s violence, Dixon, 66, touts that she’s the only candidate who has experience bringing the murder rate down. During her three years as mayor, the number of city homicides fell from 282 to 238. There have been more than 300 annually in recent years.
In the final days of the campaign, Dixon said she plans to contrast her record with Miller’s status quo approach of supporting the current police commissioner and Scott’s lack of success in reducing crime as a chairman of the City Council’s Public Safety Committee.
“Look at what we’re going through in this city,” Dixon said of the unrelenting pace of murders. “Even with the coronavirus, things haven’t been reduced. I’m not saying Brandon isn’t a nice young man, but talk is not going to get us through this.”
The former mayor has had to shift her robust door-knocking operation because of the pandemic. She relies on other methods, such as an SUV that pumps Dixon’s voice into neighborhoods from a bullhorn, Facebook Live events and internet videos.
While the poll showed Dixon to be the
Seeking out and using information may be key to not only safety, but also a sense of well-being during the coronavirus pandemic, according to research from the Johns Hopkins University.
People in China who said they felt knowledgeable about the virus were more likely to have a positive emotional state than those who didn’t feel informed, said Haiyang Yang, a Johns Hopkins Carey Business School assistant professor.
Similarly, misinformation can increase someone’s risk of infection, Yang said. So reliable information matters.
“Perceiving that one is knowledgeable about how to effectively prevent infection can lead to a stronger sense of control, which in turn can help protect emotional well-being,” he said.
As Marylanders emerge from lockdown, they are looking to buoy their spirits in ways big and small, whether by a beach vacation or day at the docks. The Quarles family’s afternoon in Annapolis was their first time out together in months.
They found a sky gray and overcast, ready to rain. Wind swirled about them and pushed laps of water over the dock. The weather was better suited for the ducks, but Cyhl Quarles and his boys were not ready to leave.
“It feels great,” he said, beaming. “It’s a little piece of normal.” leading choice among black voters with 26% support, she has struggled to gain the support of white residents.
Karen Miller, a Baltimore-based political strategist, said many white voters still hold the criminal case that forced her from office against the former mayor. Dixon was found guilty of embezzling gift cards meant for the poor, and resigned as mayor part of a plea agreement to a perjury charge.
“Sheila’s support is so solid. People who are impoverished and distressed, they feel like Sheila is their champion,” she said. “African American women, we tend to be a lot more forgiving than our white counterparts.”
For his part, Smith, 42, launched a new social media ad last week emphasizing the city needs a new leadership direction. The Facebook push is simple and plays on what analysts say is Smith’s likability: a photo of the smiling candidate and the message, “I voted for change.”
When the poll came out Wednesday, Smith said his supporters told him they couldn’t believe it. Smith had performed better in previous polls.
“People were furious to see the poll say what it said,” Smith said.
But Smith looked at the data and saw a public hungry for a different approach to crime-fighting and an electorate in which 63% of voters are either undecided or open to switching candidates.
“The pandemic is a significant thing we’re working to address, but the long-term epidemic of gun violence has long been detrimental to the city,” Smith said. “We really need to make sure people remember how important this race is.”
About two dozen people are running in the Democratic primary. There are seven candidates in the Republican primary, as well as one unaffiliated candidate. For decades, the primary contest among the city’s Democrats, who outnumber Republican voters by nearly 10 to 1, has determined who will be mayor.
Farajii Muhammad, a radio show host on WEAA-FM who recently served as panelist for the Baltimore NAACP’s mayoral debate, said each candidate presents strengths and weaknesses.
Mary Miller, he said, needs to build inroads with black voters. Young needs to change the public’s view of him as an interim mayor. Smith and Vignarajah need to show range on issues beyond crime. Dixon needs to restore public trust. And Scott needs to emphasize his experience.
But most of all, Muhammad said, the candidates need to convince undecided voters they truly care about the future of the city and have the strategies to change its direction.
“People want someone who can come in and address the crime and offer a vision for the future,” Muhammad said. “They want someone who can be an inspiration.”