Mid-November update: Virus surge disrupts holiday plans
“Cheer up,” they said last week, “things could be worse.” So, I cheered up. And, sure enough, things did get worse. That old gag certainly applies to travel in the waning weeks of 2020. COVID-19 is staging a massive comeback in the U.S. and parts of Europe, and places that had started to reopen are now shutting down again. Even supposedly low-risk family get-togethers are iffy.
As I’m writing this, three states and several areas have reimposed 14-day quarantines that continue past Thanksgiving weekend, and I will be very surprised if more places don’t follow suit in the next few days. Several have also prohibited indoor restaurant dining again.
These rulings can seriously disrupt even the simplest plans. I live in southern Oregon, and if I were to have Thanksgiving dinner with relatives in Lakehead, California, just 100 miles down I-5, current rules say I’d have to quarantine there 14 days, then quarantine another 14 days when I got home. Sure, for now those quarantines are not enforced, but that could come too. All in all, the rule for Thanksgiving this year is either small local family gatherings or lots of Zoom/ Skype calls and lots of TV football at home.
The Christmas-New Year period, just six weeks away, is a complete unknown. If renewed restrictions manage to bring the virus rate down, you could have lots of options. If not, you could see a redo of Thanksgiving. In case you’re itching to get moving, here are a few ways to keep track of current restrictions and limitations:
The most comprehensive state-by-state listing of current limits I’ve seen is posted by USA Today, which shows limitations in every state. It appears to be updated daily. If it keeps updating, it’s the go-to first source of state-by-state requirements.
AARP also posts an updated list, but it concentrates on masks and doesn’t list restaurant or quarantine status.
Oddly, neither of these sources posts information on the many state-border quarantines in place. The best compilation of the quarantine situation is from Amtrak.
Wikipedia posts and apparently updates country-by-country lockdown status, including information on current “second lockdowns” phase.
Rather than go through lockdowns, tourist-starved Hawaii is relying on tests to admit travelers who test negative. Its island location is unique, and no other state can follow, but several foreign countries are implementing some kind of test regime.
Travel starting in spring 2021 may be better. By then, it looks like at least two vaccines will be available, and cheap instant tests may become readily available.
Travel to Europe,
Asia and the Pacific may depend, at least initially, on some combination of (1) instant testing at the main international gateway airports and (2) “health passport” vaccination records. So far, the various involved governments have not agreed on which tests to use and which vaccinations to accept, but that should come late this year or early next.
Travel insurance may also be able to limit risks, but be sure to ask for a policy that does not exclude “epidemic” or “pandemic” as a “covered reason” for trip cancellation, trip interruption and medical coverage.
Currently, my take is that there’s no reason not to plan travel starting next spring. I’m still holding on to my twice-delayed arrangements for a trip to Germany and Switzerland in April. But I’m figuring that the chances of having that trip go as currently planned are no better than 50-50.
You might get tired of hearing my soapbox message, but it’s still valid: Plan as much as you want for trips next spring and summer. But don’t pay for any future arrangements upfront — even nominally without a change fee — until you are 99 percent sure you’ll be able to make the trip.