Undecided Scottish voters may hold key to U.K.’s fate
EDINBURGH, Scotland — Scotland’s independence campaign has stoked strong passions on both sides, but with just two days until Thursday’s historic referendum, it is the quiet undecideds who may hold the balance of power.
Scotland decides Thursday whether to sever centuries-old ties with the rest of the United Kingdom.
Recent polls have narrowed dramatically and show the vote is too close to call.
The United Kingdom’s fate may rest on a group of uncommitted voters that could constitute as few as 500,000 people out of an electorate of more than 4 million. They are weighing the economic uncertainties against the pull of sovereign statehood.
With claims and counterclaims made by both sides over how the economy, welfare and health care will be affected, some voters who are most in need of persuading feel confused.
“My heart says yes, but my head says no. I guess it will come down to how I feel on the day,” said Anne from Lochgelly, north of the capital of Edinburgh. She declined to give her full name. “It’s such a risk, and you can’t know what’s going to happen. When even businessmen disagree over the impact it’s going to have, how are we meant to know?”
As the campaign enters its final stretch, two factors will decide the country’s future: whether those who have expressed a firm preference think again and whether the undecideds come off the fence.
Opinion polls show the elderly will swing heavily toward the no camp and will turn out in high numbers. But previous strong- holds for the pro-unionists — women and opposition Labour Party supporters — have wavered.
Ben Page, chief executive of polling group Ipsos MORI, said the undecideds tend to be women and young people.
Polls suggest 10 percent or more of the electorate has yet to make up its mind, but Page told BBC Radio that most of that group has essentially decided and that only about 4 percent who are certain to vote are genuinely unsure which way to go.
If true, that leaves a small pool of voters for each side to target. The problem could be finding them.
Many Scottish residents declined to talk about their intentions in recent days, a reticence that makes it difficult for pollsters and campaigners to divine their intentions.
At Edinburgh Airport, where Scottish nationalist leader Alex Salmond was campaigning with pro-independence business leaders Monday, public displays of support for either side were in short supply.
“I’m undecided. I’ve been working a lot, so I missed the TV debates. I haven’t had a lot of time to think about it,” Geoff, who works at the airport, said. “The economic side of it is important to me, and I’m leaning towards no. These politicians always promise you the sun, the moon and the earth, but I don’t trust them.”
Simon, 24, works in an Edinburgh bookshop and also declined to give his surname.
“I’m leaning towards yes. I’m very much in favor of self-government. A lot of risks seem to be scare stories,” he said. “But my doubt is whether we can afford it. I need to do more research. It’s only a few more days, so it’s going to be a lot of online reading into the early hours of the morning.”
The reluctance to reveal a preference is emblematic of what some academics say may be a “shy no” vote — people who won’t say publicly that they are put off by the risks of independence but will vote no in the privacy of the ballot box.
In Glasgow, William Andrews, who will vote for independence, was unconcerned. “They say there’s a silent majority voting no. I really don’t see any evidence of that,” he said.
Recent polls put the no campaign at 51 percent, while yes is at 49.
“Unless something dramatic happens in the next three days, a no victory is now the more likely outcome,” said Peter Kellner, president of YouGov, a polling group. “Note the word ‘likely.’ It’s not certain.”