Packed primary calendar shifts GOP’s focus South

As the number of candidates seeking the Republican nomination nears a dozen, with more to come, the calendar of primaries has drawn increased attention, with party strategists trying to determine which contests will begin to winnow the field.

Though the calendar remains unsettled, several Southern states, including Alabama and Arkansas, are looking to have an effect on the race by holding contests on the same date — creating a so-called SEC primary, named after the college sports Southeastern Conference.

In Florida, Republicans have rallied around a winner-take-all primary that could be a jackpot in the race for delegates and potentially determine the electoral fate of the state’s former governor, Jeb Bush, and its current Republican senator, Marco Rubio.

And in Nevada, lawmakers weighed legislation — championed by Republicans — that would have allowed parties to choose between the current caucus system or a primary. Late Monday, the legislation stalled as the session came to a close, likely killing the proposal for this election cycle.

“What wehave right now is a very compressed calendar with important contests taking place within several weeks of one another,” said Josh Putnam, a visiting assistant professor of political science at Appalachian State University in North Carolina who studies primaries and writes the blog FrontloadingHQ.

“It won’t be nearly as elongated as the last cycle,” he said.

The compression of the current calendar, with Iowa and New Hampshire likely to kick off the voting proc- ess in early February, followed by South Carolina and Nevada toward the middle and end of the month, creates a different dynamic than 2012, Putnam said.

In the last cycle, Republicans blamed a faulty primary system for a protracted nomination contest that ran from early January to April.

The rules last time allowed several weeks between contests and did not deter states, particularly Florida, from moving their primaries earlier than usual.

In this cycle, Republicans have adopted tough rules to prevent states other than Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada from holding contests in February. States that violate the rules and try to start early would see their number of convention delegates sharply reduced.

With March 1 as the earliest time most states can vote, several Southern states are eyeing that date for a Super Tuesday battle that could give a boost to a Southern Republican such as former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee or Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas.

Arkansas and Texas, along with Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Virginia, each plan to hold primaries on that date.

Alabama’s 2012 primary was held in mid-March, which was still considered late in the cycle, said Brent Buchanan, a Republican strategist based in Montgomery, Ala.

“It’s going to really be historic in that presidential candidates will have to give serious attention to the South,” said Buchanan, adding, “There’s a buzz with people saying, ‘Hey, we really matter this election.’ ”

In Florida, which is set to hold its primary two weeks after, on March 15, Republicans last month voted to award all the state’s 99 delegates to the primary winner instead of distributing them proportionally.

“We know that Florida is a prize ... and the candidate to win here is going to get a big prize,” state GOP Chairman Blaise Ingoglia said. “We’re a swing state with large cities statewide.”

Despite the condensed primary calendar, the nominating process could still stretch on because of the ability of megadonors to keep favored candidates afloat through super political action committees.

That was what occurred in 2012, when casino magnate Sheldon Adelson bankrolled a super PAC supporting former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and kept his campaign going well into the spring, even after it was clear his delegate count could not surpass the total of the eventual Republican nominee, Mitt Romney.

Still, Putnam sees the calendar as the driving force.

“Millionaires and billionaires are not going to want to give additional money and pay when it’s clear it’s for a losing cause,” he said. “The compressed calendar will likely winnow the field faster, and that’s certainly what the GOP wants headed into the general election.”

“It’s going to really be historic in that presidential candidates will have to give serious attention to the South.”