Ryan won’t run again
House speaker leaves Republicans in the grip of uncertainty
WASHINGTON — House Speaker Paul Ryan’s decision not to seek re-election throws an already fractious House of Representativs into further uncertainty and could deal another blow to Republican hopes of holding on to control of Congress.
The Wisconsin Republican, often seen as a future GOP presidential contender, announced Wednesday that he will not run in November and will leave the speakership after the election. Republicans fear that they will lose a significant number of House seats i n the midterm and perhaps the majority.
Ryan insisted that his departure has nothing to do with fears of a Democratic wave or frustration over President Donald Trump’s administration. Instead he said that after securing his career-long dream of major tax-cut legislation in December, he wanted to spend more time with his teenage children.
With tax cuts signed into law, he argued, the party will be well positioned by Election Day, and he suggested that he saw no further challenges ahead. His decision was also an acknowledgment that odds are low during the reminder of the year to achieve any of his other long-standing priorities, such as cutting Social Security, Medicare and other domestic programs.
Ryan’s early departure from a job few leave voluntarily — it is second in line to the presidency — also means that he won’t be around to face the fiscal consequences of the tax cut plan, which the nonpartisan Paul Ryan
Congressional Budget Office said Monday would add $1.9 trillion to the nation’s budget deficit by 2028.
“I have accomplished much of what I came here to do, and my kids aren’t getting any younger. And if I stay, they’re only going to know me as a weekend dad,” he told reporters after breaking the news to his staff and fellow House members.
As for what his planned departure will mean to Republicans in November, Ryan brushed aside any negative fallout. “I don’t think it affects it,” he said.
Realistically, his departure poses multiple threats to Republicans. Ryan, 48, served as one of the party’s most prolific fundraisers, and his announcement dampened morale just as other Republicans are deciding whether to join more than three dozen party incumbents who have already decided not to run.
As Ryan made his announcement, one more name was added to the departure list as four-term Rep. Dennis Ross, R-Fla., announced he would not seek re-election.
Republicans including Ryan were pledging Wednesday that the fight to replace him would hold until after the election. But already, talk filled the Capitol of meetings to determine levels of support for Ryan lieutenants and others, as all parties waited to see if President Donald Trump would anoint a favorite. That fight is also likely to reopen some of the internal GOP fissures Ryan worked to narrow as speaker after they drove out his predecessor, Ohio Rep. John Boehner.
Among the likely candidates were Ryan’s second and third in command, Rep. Kevin McCarthy of California and Rep. Steve Scalise of Louisiana.
“The biggest issue now is trying to hold the majority. … The last thing we need is a leadership battle,” Rep. Charlie Dent of Pennsylvania, one of the dozens of departing Republicans, told reporters.
Dent took pains to exclude Ryan from blame for possible poor results in November, but did little to soften his view of the difficulties ahead for Republicans. “We have a toxic political environment, with or without Paul Ryan’s decision,” Dent said, adding that the election would be “a referendum on the president of the United States and the party in power.”
“We can all read between the lines,” he said of Ryan’s departure. “This is not an easy administration to deal with.”
First elected to the House in 1998, Ryan served as the GOP vice presidential nominee in 2012 under Mitt Romney, who on Wednesday praised Ryan for his “love of Speaker of the House Paul Ryan tells reporters he will not run for re-election amid Republican concerns over keeping their majority in the House of Representatives, during a news conference at the Capitol. country” and “integrity, honor and dignity.”
While other Republicans joined in — some members were said to be in tears at Ryan’s announcement — Democrats called on the speaker to close out his tenure by working with them on bipartisan solutions to issues like immigration.
“I hope the speaker uses his remaining time in Congress to break free from the hard-right factions of his caucus that have kept Congress from getting real things done,” said Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York.
“If he’s willing to reach across the aisle, he’ll find Democrats willing and eager to work with him.”
The speaker’s move came less than three years from when he reluctantly took the leadership post as a compromise candidate after Boehner’s resignation. Like Boehner’s before him, Ryan’s tenure was plagued by divisions within the GOP, some longstanding and others exacerbated by the election of Trump.
The party’s turn to Trump, and a narrower and more nationalistic view of the country’s direction, gave Ryan his greatest achievement legislatively, but also took a toll on his reputation and legacy.
The tax cut measure was made possible only because of Trump’s presence in the White House, as Ryan acknowledged. But notably, in Wednesday’s remarks he did not mention Trump until questioned by reporters.
“I’m grateful to the president for giving us this opportunity to do big things, to get this country on the right track,” Ryan said. “He’s given us that chance, so I’m grateful to him for that.”
They were not always in policy lockstep, however: Trump helped put the brakes on Ryan’s goal of cutting Social Security, Medicare and other programs.
According to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, which analyzes political races nationwide, 96 congressional seats are in play. Of those, 80 are now held by Republicans, and only 16 by Democrats.
Democrats need to pick up 23 seats to flip control of the House. David Wasserman, Cook Political’s House analyst, said 21 Republican-held seats are considered true tossups — that is, most likely to change hands — while only two Democratic seats are so described.
On Wednesday, Ryan’s district was moved from “solid” to “leaning” Republican, a reflection of the uncertainty after his announcement.