Paths to victory

Seven Democrats have theories for why they'll win the chance to take on Gov.Larry Hogan — here’s how their plans could work or fail

Our view:

The Democratic gubernatorial primary is so competitive this year, The Sun’s Erin Cox reports, that campaigns and strategists think they may need the support of no more than a quarter of the electorate to win — maybe as few as 125,000 votes. To put that in context, two of the leading candidates, Prince George’s County Executive Rushern Baker and Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamenetz, cleared more than that number in their 2014 re-election bids; it’s not remotely an insurmountable number statewide. Consequently, the campaigns are focusing most of their efforts on appealing to certain segments of the electorate, and they all have theories for how they can win. Here’s a run-down of the best-case scenario for each of them — and how things could go wrong.

Rushern Baker

His path to victory: A strong base in Prince George’s County, spillover recognition in neighboring Montgomery County, appeal among African-American voters generally and particularly in Baltimore City, plus enough establishment cred to do well elsewhere.

How it adds up: Prince George’s is the second-biggest prize in a Democratic primary, just behind its larger neighbor, Montgomery. And the county showed some love for a native son in the last gubernatorial race, giving then-Lt. Gov. Anthony G. Brown a massive, 55,000 vote edge over then-Attorney General Doug Gansler. Mr. Brown also won in Montgomery County, the home turf of both of his chief rivals, Mr. Gansler and then-Del. Heather Mizeur, though not as handily. Baltimore City was another bright spot for Mr. Brown, who, like Mr. Baker, is African-American. Finally, like Mr. Brown, Mr. Baker has some impressive endorsements from the party establishment, which should help him elsewhere.

How it could fall short: Unlike in 2014, there are two major African-American candidates in the race, so that pivotal segment of the electorate will likely be more divided than it was last time. Mr. Baker also lacks the level of organized labor endorsements Mr. Brown enjoyed, so it may be harder for him to expand beyond his natural base. Prince George's County Executive Rushern Baker

Ben Jealous Richard Madaleno

His path to victory: Do well in his native Montgomery County and appeal to progressives elsewhere based on his track record in the legislature (and particularly his experience butting heads with Gov. Larry Hogan).

Howit adds up: The state senator has a lot of support from fellow Montgomery politicians, including Rep. Jamie Raskin and a bevvy of legislators and municipal officials. He has performed well in straw polls of party activists and has relationships with progressive interest groups based on his work related to LGBT issues, the environment, economic justice, health care, gun control and other concerns.

Howit could fall short: Mr. Madaleno has never run beyond the18th Legislative District, so the most votes he’s ever gotten in a primary was just over13,000. It’s a long way to go from there to a statewide campaign — something Ms. Mizeur discovered four years ago in a race in which the progressive vote was much less fractured than it is this time. State Sen. Richard Madaleno

Alec Ross

His path to victory: Find voters where other people aren’t through a tech- and social media-savvy campaign.

How it adds up: There is reason to believe that a Democratic wave election could bring out large numbers of voters who don’t have a historical attachment to any of the more established candidates. Democratic turnout in Virginia’s gubernatorial primary was up 70 percent over the last such contested election, in 2009, even though the number of registered voters has only grown by 9 percent in that time. A campaign that can identify and engage new voters could have an edge.

How it could fall short: A political newcomer, Mr. Ross’ ability to attract and turn out voters is unknown, and getting new or non-habitual voters to the polls is generally harder and less reliable than building support networks of reliable party activists. Author and entrepreneur Alec Ross

Jim Shea