Ryan and GOP scramble to get House in order
Hard-liners help create unsettled race for speaker
WASHINGTON — House Republicans are mired in an uncertain succession scramble after Speaker Paul Ryan’s decision to retire, with rankand-file members fearing their majority is in peril and openly questioning whether a larger leadership shake-up is necessary.
Ryan intends to remain as speaker until the end of his term, and his endorsement of Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy of California, was meant to quell questions about McCarthy’s readiness for the top job. Ryan is doubling down on that message in the next two months, co-hosting a series of fundraisers with McCarthy in a bid to preserve GOP control of the House.
But interviews with dozens of Republican lawmakers reveal a race that is more unsettled than the top lead- ers are publicly acknowledging, one that could remain fluid and distract lawmakers from a tough midterm election battle.
The biggest mystery surrounds the roughly three dozen hard-line conservatives who helped tank McCarthy’s l ast run for speaker, in 2015. They are poised to again use their leverage to install a sympathetic leader, or at least one willing to meet their demands.
Further complicating the race is the wild card of President Donald Trump, who enjoys a close relationship with McCarthy and whom most hard-liners are unwilling to challenge head-on. For now, Trump is being advised to let the process play out.
“The longer this takes, the more uncertainty there is,” said Rep. Frank Lucas, R-Okla., who has served under six speakers. “I’m one of those folks who believes whatever the outcome is, it needs to be quicker, not later.”
Ryan’s departure could unleash years of repressed Rep. Kevin McCarthy, left, has won the endorsement of outgoing Speaker Paul Ryan, right. ambition and cause a scramble in the leadership ranks. Younger GOP lawmakers, for instance, are pushing for a more substantial role, arguing that their generation has been sidelined from policymaking and communications.
“There needs to be change,” said Rep. Scott Taylor, R-Va., a first-term former Navy SEAL who is among those favoring a shake-up. “There doesn’t necessarily need to be a change of leadership — not necessarily — but if there was a change in leadership, you would see a change.”
Despite the restlessness, there appears to be a limited appetite to force an immediate shake-up. Most Republicans said that Ryan has tamped down an initial push for a quick transition to a new leader, and the notion of an extended leadership race holds appeal for both hard-liners, who want to force a lengthy debate about the direction of the party, and more establishment-oriented lawmakers who are wary of picking a new leader before November’s results.
“It’s definitely not going to be a coronation,” said Rep. Mark Meadows, RN.C., chairman of the hardright Freedom Caucus. “It’s a matter of who can make the compelling case that things are going to be different here in Washington, D.C., and generally speaking, moving everybody up one rung doesn’t necessarily support a different approach to Washington, D.C.”
In a signal that conservatives will not be ignored, Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, a Freedom Caucus co-founder, scrambled the leadership derby by openly considering a run of his own.
So far, key hard-liners have been careful not to rule out McCarthy as they plot their next moves. Members of the Freedom Caucus, which counts most but not all of the conservative bloc in its ranks, have agreed not to pledge support to any leadership candidate for now to enhance its leverage.
But due to the vagaries of House leadership elections, conservatives have an incentive to cut a deal with the GOP’s future leader before the election.
If Republicans keep the House majority, their top leader will become speaker, requiring a majority vote of all 435 members of the body. In that case, a Republican speaker will need the hard-line bloc’s votes.
But if the GOP loses its majority in November, the party will instead elect a minority leader, which requires only a majority of Republicans. The hard-liners would be sidelined.
McCarthy appears to be settling in for the long game.
“There’s no reason to cut a deal ahead of time, because these guys are notorious for moving the goal posts,” said one McCarthy ally, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. “But I’m sure he’ll be talking to them.”
And while many conservatives aren’t ruling him out, they say he has work to do to win their trust.
“He’s articulate. He’s sharp. He gets the issues,” said Rep. Randy Weber, R-Texas, a Freedom Caucus member. “Can he take us to the proverbial promised land, whatever that means? Not if people won’t work with him.”