Harper’s quiet bat: Quirk or concern?

Memorial Day has come and gone, and Bryce Harper is hitting .232 — one of the 30 worst hitters among qualified big-leaguers.

He’s in the midst of a boomand-bust season, heading into Tuesday night with 16 home runs but other numbers that suggest he might not be the historically complete hitter he sometimes seems. But if he is not that, and he is not this, what is he?

In 2015, Harper was easy to define. He was the youngest unanimous MVP in history, patient enough to walk with Bonds- like regularity, dangerous enough to force anyone foolish enough to pitch to him to regret it. So what is his norm? In parts of three seasons before that 2015 explosion, Harper averaged .272 with an .816 OPS while averaging 25 homers per 162 games. From 2016 through Monday, he had a .270 average and .904 OPS while averaging 37 homers per 162 games. No one should expect him to hit .330. But those numbers don’t suggest he should be hitting .230.

Harper’s walk rate is well above his career average. His strikeout rate is below it. He is making a greater percentage of hard contact than ever. He is swinging at fewer pitches out of the strike zone and more pitches in it. But two stat changes could explain Harper’s low average:

He is making less contact than ever. He is swinging at and missing more pitches than any season since 2014.

His batting average on balls in play is more than 100 points lower than his career average. Apply his career average on balls in play (.316) to his 2018 season and he would be hitting .306.

Harper’s BABIP is due for a correction. How substantial it is will define him for those trying hard to figure out who he is.