Md.’s flood-prone towns now face tough decisions

The catastrophic flooding that hit Ellicott City again last month is not just routine weather-related bad luck as recently suggested (“Ellicott City flooding is nothing new,” May 30). That letter writer concluded that the 2016 and 2018 floods are basically the same kind of coincidence as the floods that hit Ellicott City just four years apart in 1952 and 1956. Here’s the difference. After those floods, there was a 64-year period without serious flooding.

Now, due to documented changes in precipitation from climate change, it is probably unrealistic to expect 60 flood-free years in Ellicott City. Data in the 2017 National Climate Assessment 4, Vol. 1, show a clear increase in the frequency of heavy precipitation in the Northeast since the1950s. This is hard evidence that the past is no longer a reliable guide to the future. Given the vulnerable location of Ellicott City and the increased incidence of storms dropping more than 5 inches in a few hours, residents should expect flooding to occur again much sooner than historical expectations.

Hard decisions are ahead for everyone, both in places like Ellicott City and in Maryland’s coastal communities, which are increasingly subject to destructive tidal flooding and storm surge due to sea level rise. When is it worth rebuilding, and when is it time to relocate? It’s time to come to grips with this difficult question and to start figuring out how to balance the importance of cherished places with the personal tragedy and considerable expense of repeated destruction in areas that we know are particularly vulnerable.