Can Ben Jealous win?
Governor Hogan’s moves since the primary show he’s taking nothing for granted, but here are five things the Democrat can do to stay competitive
Our view:
Ben Jealous’ 10-point victory over Prince George’s County Executive Rushern Baker in Tuesday’s Democratic primary was much stronger than the tight polls in the race had suggested. He won every county except two (Prince George’s and neighboring Calvert), showing a strong turnout operation statewide. And his win came amid strong progressive stirrings in Maryland, showing that voters (at least Democratic primary ones) have a taste for change.
But beating Mr. Baker and the rest of the Democrats is one thing. Beating Gov. Larry Hogan — he of the 70 percent approval rating and $9 million campaign account — is another matter entirely. Mr. Hogan is not only the incumbent. He is not only better known than anyone Mr. Jealous has run against so far. He’s also a far better campaigner who has played things just about perfectly so far. Our advice for him at this point would be to do ... exactly what he’s been doing.
Mr. Jealous has a tougher task. Putting aside for the moment the question of whether Mr. Jealous beat Mr. Hogan (we’ll wait until a lot closer to November to render judgment on that one), it’s worth asking whether he can. All the public polling to date suggests Mr. Hogan starts with a massive lead — but not an insurmountable one. Most (though not a couple of recent ones) have shown him below 50 percent against Mr. Jealous. If Mr. Jealous is going to make a real race of it, here’s what he needs to do:
Move to Baltimore County
Baltimore County has been on the winning side of each of the last four competitive gubernatorial races. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. won big there in 2002, and Mr. Hogan did the same in 2014. If Mr. Jealous can at least make the race there close, he’s got a shot. Governor Hogan dodged a bullet with the nomination of moderate Republican Al Redmer in the county executive primary over Trumpian Republican Pat McDonough, but Mr. Jealous can point to good signs there, too. The most progressive candidate on the Democratic side, John A. Olszewski Jr., holds a narrow lead at the moment, and Mr. Jealous racked up a huge margin there. It’s not foreign turf for a progressive candidate. And there’s clearly some energy on the Democratic side; more total votes were cast in the Democratic primaries than the Republican ones in the three County Council districts now represented by Republicans. The strong showing by Democratic county executive candidate John A. Olszewski Jr. (left) is a good sign for Ben Jealous in Baltimore County.
Get under Governor Hogan’s skin