Data: Obamacare premiums stabilizing, insurers returning
WASHINGTON — Millions of people covered under the Affordable Care Act will see only modest premium increases next year, and some will get a price cut.
That’s the conclusion from an exclusive analysis of the besieged but resilient program, which still sparks deep divisions heading into this year’s midterm elections.
The consulting firm Avalere Health and The Associated Press crunched available state data and found that Obamacare’s health insurance marketplaces seem to be stabilizing after two years of sharp premium hikes.
And the exodus of insurers from the program has halted, even reversed somewhat, with more consumer choices for 2019.
The analysis found a 3.6 percent average increase in proposed or approved premiums across 47 states and Washington, D.C., for 2019.
This year the average increase nationally was about 30 percent. The average total premium for an individual covered under the health law is now close to $600 a month before subsidies.
For next year, premiums are expected either to drop or increase by less than 10 percent in 41 states with about 9 million customers. Eleven of those states are expected to see a drop in average premiums.
In six other states, plus Washington, D.C., premiums are projected to rise from 10 to 18 percent.
Insurers are also starting to come back. Nineteen states will either see new insurers enter or current ones expand into more areas. There are no “bare” counties lacking a willing insurer.
Even so, Chris Sloan, an Avalere director, says, “This is still a market that’s unaffordable for many people who aren’t eligible for subsidies.”
Nearly 9 in 10 ACA customers get government subsidies based on income, shielding most from premium increases.
But people with higher incomes, who don’t qualify for financial aid, have dropped out in droves.
It’s too early to say if the ACA’s turnabout will be fleeting or a more permanent shift.
Either way, next year’s numbers are at odds with the political rhetoric around the ACA, still heated even after President Donald Trump and congressional Republicans failed to repeal the law last year.
Trump regularly calls “Obamacare” a “disaster” and time and again has declared it “dead.” The GOP tax-cut bill repealed the ACA requirement that Americans have health insurance or risk fines, effective next year.
But other key elements remain, including subsidies and protection for people with pre-existing conditions.
Democrats, meanwhile, accuse Trump of “sabotage,” driving up premiums and threatening coverage.
The moderating market trend “takes the issue away from Republican candidates” in the midterm elections, said Mark Hall, a health law and policy expert at Wake Forest University in North Carolina. “Part of the mess is now their fault, and the facts really don’t support the narrative that things are getting worse.”
Market stability also appears to undercut Democrats’ charge that Trump is undermining the program.
But Democrats disagree, saying the ACA is in danger while Republicans control Washington, and that premiums would have been even lower but for the administration’s hostility.
“Voters won’t think that the Trump threat to the ACA has passed at all, unless Democrats get at least the House in 2018,” said Bill Carrick, a strategist for Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., whose re-election ads emphasize her support for the health law.
As if seconding Democrats’ argument, the Trump administration has said it won’t defend the ACA’s protections for preexisting conditions in a federal case in Texas that could go to the Supreme Court.
A new Kaiser Family Foundation poll found that Americans regardless of partisan identification said those protections should remain the law of the land.