Second half will be team’s real test
Nationals’ surge late in 1st half put them in contention
WASHINGTON — Something odd happened over the past six weeks, as the Nationals went from wasting their season to wrangling it: Almost everything went right.
The Nationals went 28-11 from May 24 to July 7, baseball’s best record during that stretch. But because they began their march in fourth place in the National League East, and way down the wild-card standings, they also needed a lot of help. That’s when the Mets flatlined, and the Phillies struggled, too, and even the Brewers lost enough for Washington to make up significant ground before the All-Star break. The Nationals did their part against weak opponents, and they also got lucky, and that combination breathed belief into a club that once looked ready to spend this month selling players.
“It’s awesome that we played as well as we played,” Nationals closer Sean Doolittle said. “But when you would glance up at the standings every couple of days just to see what else was going on, every time it seemed like, ‘Oh, my gosh, we just made up like two or three games.’ That almost gives you that confidence and helps you continue that momentum.”
The Nationals didn’t depend on other teams to save their season. That had to start in their clubhouse and by cleaning up their own play. But that they benefited from others losing, and a favorable schedule heading into the break, is worth noting as the focus shifts to what’s next. Washington is atop the wild-card standings, six games behind the Braves in the National League East, and only has a fighting chance because it won 70% of its past 40 games.
That will be very hard to sustain, especially considering the Nationals recently went 10-2 against the Marlins, Tigers and Royals, who are all bee-lining toward 100 losses. Those teams that stumbled through June, namely the Phillies and Brewers, are looking to buy before the July 31 trade deadline and should pick up their pace. But because the Nationals are back in contention — way more than they could say six weeks ago — their hardest task is ahead. A new life will only matter if they do something with it.
“We have a lot of games left,” second baseman Brian Dozier said after Washington closed the first half with a win over the Royals. “It’s a long season.”
In March, April and most of May, when the Nationals were falling miles short of expectations, their veterans often reached for the same language: It’s early. There are 162 games in the season. We have time. Then, they felt like unconvincing reasons not to panic, the expected cliches, a way to shift the conversation into an uncertain future. Now it’s a reminder of how much work remains.
The Nationals begin the second half with three games in Philadelphia, then close the month with two against the Orioles in Baltimore, four with the Braves in Atlanta, three home dates with the Rockies, three with the Dodgers, who have the majors’ best record, and three more with the Braves. It is a stretch that could break their season as quickly as it was restored. The Phillies series provides an immediate chance to separate themselves in second place. Seven matchups with the Braves will determine if Washington can really compete in the division. A set with the Dodgers will be a good measuring stick. If the Nationals can take 43 of their final 73 games, a .589 winning percentage, they will finish with 90 wins and be right in the playoff mix.
And what gives them confidence to do that, now and always, is their rotation. They have Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin and Max Scherzer lined up to face the Phillies, in that order, which means those pitchers will also each square off with the Braves next weekend. Scherzer’s past nine starts have been the best stretch of his career. Corbin has gone seven innings and given up one run or fewer in each of his past four outings. Strasburg has been steady all season, going at least six innings in all but three of his 18 appearances, and he most recently struck out 14 in a win over the Marlins.
The rotation as a whole, including Aníbal Sánchez and Austin Voth, has a 1.94 ERA across Washington’s past 12 games. The offense has supported its effort, despite short slumps, and players including Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner and Juan Soto just got a needed four days of rest. And while the bullpen is still a big question mark, going from historically bad to plainly unreliable, the Nationals have succeeded despite it. So the rotation is dominant besides its fifth starter, the offense does its job, and the team could use a reliever or two off the trade market. It’s not a bad spot to be in.
“We’re going to see what the needs of the team are. We’re going to see where we’re at, what opportunities we have to make any kind of changes,” General Manager Mike Rizzo said, back on June 26, when asked how he would approach the trade deadline. “And as we’ve done in the past, we’ve been buyers, we’ve been sellers, we’ve been a kind of a mixture of buying and selling at the same time, so this is our time to evaluate.”