Soto now a dual threat
PITTSBURGH — If someone made a list of Juan Soto’s baseball limitations before this season, let’s hope they used a pencil.
The 20-year-old didn’t appear to be a threat on the bases paths heading into his second year in the majors. But then he expanded his skill set, as he often has, and now has to be minded whenever he leads off first base. Soto has 12 steals this season and has been caught just once after swiping only five bags as a rookie in 2018.
Through Wednesday, Soto had 513 plate appearances in 115 games. He finished last season with 494 plate appearances in 116 games. This provides an apt year-to-year offensive comparison and shows that the biggest difference with Soto, the Nationals’ left fielder of the present and future, is his tendency to run.
Soto’s final rookie stat line: 77 runs, 121 hits, 25 doubles, 22 home runs, 70 RBI, 79 walks, 99 strikeouts, .292 average, .406 on-base percentage, .517 slugging percentage and a 142 OPS+, an advanced statistic that measures hitters against a league average and factors in opponents and ballparks played in. His stat line this season, in a near-identical sample size: 80 runs, 122 hits, 20 doubles, 28 home runs, 83 RBIs, 79 walks, 102 strikeouts, .288 batting average, .399 on-base percentage, .552 slugging and, again, a 139 OPS+. Most numbers are almost equal. His added power fits a leaguewide trend. The steals, already seven more with six weeks to play, are what really stand out.
The first step was getting faster, plain and simple, and Soto put that at the top of his offseason to-do list. That meant never skipping leg day in the gym. That meant going to the beach every Saturday, in his hometown of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, and trudging through the ankle-high sand, sometimes pulling weights along with him. Once he got to spring training, a bit slimmer, a bit stronger in his lower half, Soto began working with first base coach Tim Bogar on how to better read pitchers.
Bogar heads the base stealing efforts and often uses what the Nationals call “hot counts” to improve odds. A hot count is one in which a pitcher has a low throw-over percentage — meaning he rarely tries to pick off at first base — and tends to throw breaking balls to the batter. Breaking balls are easier to steal on because they get to the plate slower and can be hard for the catcher to handle. Hot counts don’t really apply to Trea Turner or Victor Robles, known base stealers who are treated accordingly. But with Soto, who is much closer to average speed, the formula often applies.
That has helped Soto turn a deficiency, or a non-skill, into a deceptive strength. Teams don’t tend to Soto like a base stealer, so he exploits them. He plays the numbers game. He often picks a specific count to run in, talking quietly with Bogar once he reaches first, and then uses instincts to time the pitcher and take off.
“With Juan, it’s a great blend of understanding analytics and what we’re trying to do but also using his natural ability and feel for the game,” Bogar said.