Command helps Phillips find success
Pitcher overcame nervous start to big-league career Even in defeat, earns a small victory for analytics community
TORONTO — In June, after his fourth of what became eight promotions to the Orioles in 2019, Evan Phillips admitted to being nervous in the majors.
At Triple-A Norfolk, the right-handed reliever felt “comfortable,” like he could “let [his] shoulders hang,” but those feelings escaped him in the big leagues. That was reflected in his season stat line, with an 8.84 ERA and 17 walks in 19 innings through August. Each of his rides on the so-called Norfolk shuttle did little to improve his psyche.
“At the beginning of the year, when I was getting sent down, I was always going down and working on something new, what I needed to change, instead of just what I needed to improve,” Phillips said.
But in his final eight relief appearances with the Tides, he allowed only one run in 14 innings, an ERA of 0.63. He’s carried that success into September with the Orioles. In six appearances in the majors this month, Phillips has pitched seven
If Aaron Schatz, founder and editor of the analytics website Football Outsiders, oversaw the blueprints for a new head coach designed at some far-off, modern football laboratory, his creation might look like a typical football coach but not think like one.
The coach would have the offense pass more than run, even more than at prevailing NFL rates. The coach would rely heavily on play-action and almost never run on second-and-long. The coach would go for it on fourth-and-short, even in their own territory. The coach would go for 2-point conversions when their team trails by double digits late and when a penalty moves the ball to the 1-yard line.
The coach would, in other words, act a lot like the John Harbaugh who became a darling of football’s analytics community Sunday, even in defeat. In their 33-28 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, the Ravens attempted four fourth-down conversions, three of them in the first half; went for three 2-point conversions, including after the game’s opening score; and played not a “field position game,” Harbaugh said Monday, “but a possession game.”
It was not quite Schatz’s Create-aCoach come to life, but it was close. Afterward, Harbaugh explained that he had followed the numbers, not his gut. To some vocal fans with the advantage of hindsight, the decision-making registered as questionable at best, coaching malpractice at worst. For the sport’s quants and number crunchers, this was a small victory in the fight for smarter football.
“The thought was always that a coach would not be willing to own analytics because of the fear that the owner would fire him if it backfired,” Schatz said in a telephone interview. “It just shows the whole franchise-wide commitment to the idea.”
Harbaugh has long been among the NFL’s bolder coaches. In Football Outsiders’ annual Aggressiveness Index, he’s typically ranked among the NFL’s most aggressive on fourth down. Last season, according to a Sporting News review of NFL coaches, Harbaugh went for it on fourth-and-1 80% of the time, tied for the second-most aggressive rate. (In first was the Chiefs’ Andy Reid, under whom Harbaugh previously worked on the Philadelphia Eagles’ coaching staff.)
But even Harbaugh acknowledged Monday that the Ravens’ “analytics guys will tell you that I don’t follow the analytics nearly enough. They’ll tell you that I go by my gut way more than I go by the analytics.” On that point, he is probably not alone. One 2018 study by Derrick Yam, a
scoreless innings, striking out 10 and walking three.
Both Phillips, 25, and manager Brandon Hyde emphasized command as the determining factor in his success, with Phillips pointing in particular to his off-speed pitches. As he did in his previous major league stints this year, Phillips is throwing his fastball in the strike zone at least half the time, per Statcast, but he’s putting his secondary pitches in the zone far more often. In September, he’s thrown his changeup in the zone twice as often as he did during his previous call-ups, and has thrown his slider for a strike 20% more often as well.
He’s improved with an effort to duplicate the mindset he carried in Norfolk.
“I am trying to let my shoulders hang, but it’s more along the lines of treating every day the same,” Phillips said. “My work doesn’t change whether it’s in Norfolk or whether it’s in Baltimore or who I’m playing catch with or who the batter is or who I’m throwing to, whatever it might be.
“As soon as I grab the ball out there on the mound, it doesn’t matter where I am. I could be in Low-A, the big leagues, it’s gonna be the same mindset because I’m trying to improve what I can do as a pitcher. I’m trying to eliminate noticing a difference.”
Phillips is thus far the only major leaguer among the four players the Orioles acquired in last year’s trade that sent Kevin Gausman and Darren O’Day to the Atlanta Braves. He did not allow a run in spring training but didn’t break camp with the club. It didn’t take long before he was up in the majors, and from then on, it didn’t take long before he was down in the minors again.
He said there is “a sense of a safety net” in September, with expanded rosters and the end of the minor league season basically guaranteeing he’s not going anywhere. But he believes avoiding such thoughts is part of what’s led to his September success.
“It kind of stinks to have to think about that during the year,” Phillips said. “But I really don’t try to let that thought creep into my mind, so in August and September, I’ve really done a good job about solely being focused on what I can do out there on the mound.”
Hyde turned to Phillips in Monday’s series opener against the Toronto Blue Jays to steady the game after starter Chandler Shepherd lasted only three innings. Phillips retired the first six Blue Jays he faced before a walk to start his third inning ended his outing.
“Evan Phillips is all strikes. It’s all about eliminating walks,” Hyde said. “With him, it’s just all his command. I don’t know if when he gets here, he tries too hard or he tries to be too careful or what it may be, but you just can’t walk guys at the rate he does and expect to have success when you have traffic on the bases all the time.
“If you look at Evan’s numbers, it’s not just the hits per inning but it’s the walks, and if he eliminates those, his numbers go way down, and he’s going to start having some success.”