Big threat? Upset on Bulldogs’ mind
Chance for upset: Highly unlikely
Chance for an upset: Highly unlikely
Chance for upset: Unlikely
Chance for upset: Highly unlikely
Chance for upset: Possible
Part of the allure of college football is how unpredictable it can be.
This could be the week that shakes up the polls, as seven of the nation’s top 10 teams play unranked opponents. Will one of them go down?
Here is the most intriguing question for Week 5: Will there be any major upsets this weekend? North Carolina started the season with some promise, but Mack Brown’s team has fallen back to earth, losing to Wake Forest and Appalachian State in back-to-back weeks. Meanwhile, Clemson has outscored its three Power 5 opponents 117-30. Unless quarterback Trevor Lawrence gets hurt or the Tigers fall victim to some extremely bad turnover luck, Clemson should have no problem moving to 5-0. Since losing two straight games to Mississippi in 2014 and 2015, Alabama has outscored the Rebels 176-53 in three subsequent meetings. ESPN’s Football Power Index barely entertains the idea of the Crimson Tide losing, giving Alabama a win probability of 98.1%. Ohio State has been one of the most dominant teams in the country, and there’s nothing to suggest a Nebraska team that struggled to beat Illinois on the road last week can slow the Buckeyes. The Cornhuskers have enough dynamic playmakers on offense to keep this game interesting, but their defense needs to play much better to have any hope of stopping quarterback Justin Fields and Co. As long as Jalen Hurts is healthy, Oklahoma will have one of the most potent offenses in the country. There’s a chance Texas Tech can make it a shootout, but the Red Raiders struggled to score in a 28-14 loss to Arizona last week. Freshman Garrett Shrader will likely get another start for Mississippi State as Tommy Stevens recovers from injury. Playing against Auburn’s standout defensive line is a tough task for any quarterback, let alone one as inexperienced as Shrader. But the Bulldogs have talent on both sides, and Tigers freshman quarterback Bo Nix has struggled with his accuracy. This game will probably be close in the fourth quarter, and that spells trouble for Auburn.
Chance for upset: Highly unlikely
Northwestern has been able to punch above its weight in the Big Ten under Pat Fitzgerald, but the Wildcats just don’t have the talent to knock off a team as good as Wisconsin. Only two Football Bowl Subdivision teams (Akron and Rice) have averaged fewer points per game this season than Northwestern at 15.7.
Chance for upset: Highly unlikely
Towson might play in the FCS, but the Tigers are one of the best teams at that level. Despite losing to Villanova last weekend, Towson is ranked No. 5 in Bill Connelly’s beta FCS SP+ rankings, a tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Tom Flacco, the brother of former Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco, is among the best quarterbacks in the FCS and is generating some interest from pro scouts, but he’s never faced a defense as good as Florida’s, let alone played in an environment as hostile as The Swamp.
Chance for upset: Possible
Perhaps Virginia subscribes to The Solid Verbal podcast’s “body blow” theory, which suggests that teams coming off physically and emotionally draining games need more than a week to recover. Notre Dame just lost a hard-fought game against Georgia and turns around to face an undefeated Cavaliers team with its highest ranking since 2007. If the Fighting Irish can play as well as they did against the Bulldogs, they’ll be fine. Whether Notre Dame is in shape to do so is another matter.