Can’t ignore Cousins’ hot streak
As we enter the halfway point of the season, it is helpful to know which defenses are starting to distance themselves from the pack.
For example, the Patriots are allowing fewer than four fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season.
The 49ers are the next-best defense at limiting quarterback production (7.1) followed by the Broncos (10.5). If you have quarterbacks and receivers going up against these squads, think twice about putting them in your starting lineup.
The Patriots (8.3 fantasy points per game) and 49ers (9.2) are just as stingy against opposing running backs, with the Saints (12.1) and Buccaneers (12.7) also showing solid run defense. Don’t be shy about sitting any running back going up against these defenses in the coming weeks.
At the other end of the spectrum are the Falcons, Dolphins and Bengals. Feel free to load up against these defenses at any available opportunity.
Start: Kirk Cousins, QB, Vikings: Cousins is in the midst of one of the hottest stretches of his career. The 31-year-old quarterback completed 24 of 34 passes for 337 yards and four touchdowns in the Vikings’ 42-30 victory over the Lions on the road Sunday and now has three straight 300-yard passing games.
Cousins leads the league in passer rating and, according to the NFL’s NextGen stats, is completing almost 70 percent of his passes, seven percentage points higher than what we would expect after factoring in the difficulty of each throw. No quarterback has a higher passer rating when using play-action passes this year (140.2) either, per the game charters at Pro Football Focus.
Add in the revenge factor against the Redskins, Cousins’ team from 2012 to 2017, which has only the 24th best pass defense per Football Outsiders, and this has all the makings of a big performance.
Sit: Baker Mayfield, QB, Browns: Do not start any quarterback against the the Patriots defense this year until further notice. The Patriots have allowed 123 of 242 passes to be caught for 1,039 yards, one touchdown and 18 (!) interceptions, equaling a passer rating-against of 35.6. A quarterback will get a passer rating of 39.6 if they just throw the pass into the dirt.
Those same quarterbacks facing the Patriots this year produced a combined 81.8 passer rating against the rest of the league.
Start: James Conner, RB, Steelers: Conner will be going up against a Dolphins defense that is the 27th-best run-stopping unit this year, per Pro Football Focus. The Dolphins are stopping just 14 percent of rushers at or behind the line of scrimmage, the fourth-lowest stuff rate in the league. Only the Bengals allow more fantasy points per game to running backs (26.8) than the Dolphins doe this year (26.0), too.
Sit: Marlon Mack, RB, Colts: Mack has been inconsistent this year — he’s scored two touchdowns in the first three games but none since — and he doesn’t figure to get back on track against the top-rated Broncos run defense.
The Broncos’ rush defense allows opposing backs to run for a successful play (positive expected points added) 33 percent of the time, per data from TruMedia, with a third-down conversion rate allowed that is significantly below average (39 percent for the Broncos compared to league average of 49 percent).
Start: John Brown, WR, Bills: Brown has caught 33 of 45 targets this year for 473 yards and two touchdowns. He and quarterback Josh Allen have combined to produce a team-high 103.3 passer rating on those throws. Allen’s passer rating to the rest of the wideouts on the roster is a mere 71.3.
Plus, this week’s opponent, the Eagles, allow the most fantasy points per game to wideouts this year (31.8).