Alabama misses the playoff, USC wins Pac-12 and more
From Alabama missing the playoff to Minnesota winning 11 games to Kansas beating a ranked opponent, here are six bold predictions for the rest of the college football season.
LSU goes undefeated and wins the SEC.
Considering LSU is the No. 1 ranked team in the country and 8-0, this might not be considered bold. But the Tigers still have to get through Alabama and the SEC East champion to do it.
Crimson Tide coach Nick Saban hopes quarterback Tua Tagovailoa won’t miss more than one game after having surgery to repair a high ankle sprain. That puts the Heisman Trophy contender on track to return Nov. 9 in a pivotal game against LSU. But how healthy will he be?
Even before Tagovailoa’s injury, LSU looked like the conference’s best team, led by a revitalized offense under star quarterback Joe Burrow and assistant Joe Brady.
In a more modern, quarterback-friendly scheme, Burrow set the school record for touchdown passes in just seven games with 29. Before it ended in Saturday’s win over Auburn, his streak of 10 straight games with at least two touchdown passes was the longest in the Power Five.
With Alabama vulnerable because of injuries on defense and the health of its starting quarterback unclear, this is the Tigers’ best chance to win the conference since 2011. That season ended with a loss to Alabama in the BCS national championship game. Which brings us to …
Alabama misses the playoff.
If the Crimson Tide lose to LSU and fail to reach the SEC title game, that could sink their playoff hopes.
The biggest question for a one-loss Alabama team would be its resume. If the Tide go 11-1 without an SEC title, their best win would be over a likely ranked Auburn team. Wins over Duke, New Mexico State, Southern Miss and Western Carolina in nonconference play would not impress the playoff committee, and neither would a road victory over Texas A&M.
The Tide might point to the SEC’s strength as a reason for inclusion, but just look at whom Alabama has played or will play in the conference this year: South Carolina (3-5), Ole Miss (3-5), Texas A&M (5-3), Tennessee (3-5), Arkansas (2-6), LSU (8-0), Mississippi State (3-5) and Auburn (6-2). Is going 7-1 against that group really worth playoff consideration? How would Alabama stack up against other potential one-loss teams such as Oregon, Utah, Oklahoma, Baylor or Penn State?
Alabama can make those discussions moot if it goes undefeated. But if Tagovailoa isn’t back to his old self and the Tide lose to LSU, all bets are off.
Minnesota wins 11 games, plays in the Big Ten championship game and reaches a New Year’s Six bowl.
It’s not as crazy as it sounds. The undefeated Golden Gophers host Penn State on Nov. 9 before facing Iowa and Northwestern on the road and wrapping up the regular season at home against a suddenly beatable Wisconsin team. To win 11, they’ll need to go 3-1 over that stretch.
ESPN’s FPI gives the Gophers a 0.3% chance of winning out and just a 4.3% chance of winning the conference. They’ll likely be underdogs in all but the Northwestern game, but Minnesota has already gotten this far by defying the odds.
Memphis wins the AAC and plays in the Cotton Bowl.
Undefeated SMU is getting all the attention in the AAC, and rightfully so. But the Tigers are lurking at 7-1 and jumped back into the Top 25 rankings (No. 24) just in time for a huge matchup against the No. 15 Mustangs.
If the Tigers win this weekend, they’ll take control of the AAC West and have a good chance to finish 12-1 — with a head-scratching replay decision costing them dearly in a close loss to Temple. It won’t be enough for playoff consideration — unless there’s chaos at the top — but the program’s first major bowl berth is a nice prize for fourth-year coach Mike Norvell.
Georgia finishes the regular season
9-3 … and loses its bowl game.
Left on the Bulldogs’ schedule are: Florida, Missouri, Auburn, Texas A&M and Georgia Tech. ESPN’s Football Power Index gives Georgia just a 5.9% chance of winning out, and just a 17.8% chance of winning the SEC.
If the Bulldogs continue to play the way they did against South Carolina and Kentucky, they might be lucky just to go 2-3 during that stretch. The offense has struggled to find capable playmakers outside of running back D’Andre Swift, and the play-calling has limited quarterback Jake Fromm to averaging just 6.8 yards per attempt in games against SEC opponents and Notre Dame.
Georgia still has a strong defense and ranks sixth in the country in overall efficiency (in both FPI and SP+), but Kirby Smart’s in-game management continues to raise red flags. The Bulldogs were oh-soclose to a national title three years ago, and it seemed inevitable that Smart would eventually put Georgia back on top.
But as conference rivals Alabama and LSU have embraced modern offenses, the Bulldogs seem stubbornly stuck in the run-first, ball-control days of old. Unless Smart and Co. make major changes, a season that seemed destined for greatness is shaping up as a big disappointment.
USC wins the Pac-12.
Believe it or not, the Trojans control their own destiny in the Pac-12 South after beating Utah earlier this year. So all they have to do is win out, and the division title is theirs. Easy, right?
Considering the uncertainty hanging around Clay Helton’s future, it’s hard to fathom that a conference title is even possible. USC has already lost three games, and each defeat has raised the drumbeat even louder for Helton’s firing. But what happens if the Trojans mess around and win the whole conference?
The advanced numbers like USC, which ranks 26th in SP+, 25th in Sagarin and 21st in FPI. The Trojans have already shown they can beat a conference power like Utah, and they nearly beat Notre Dame on the road. With rising star Kedon Slovis back at quarterback and one of the most talented rosters in the Pac-12, why can’t they topple Oregon at home, finish the regular season 9-3 and win the conference title game?