Worldwide vaccine hunt heating up
Yet there are no guarantees now that any will work
WASHINGTON — Hundreds of people are rolling up their sleeves in countries across the world to be injected with experimental vaccines that might stop COVID-19, spurring hope — maybe unrealistic — that an end to the pandemic may arrive sooner than anticipated.
About 100 research groups are pursuing vaccines with nearly a dozen in early stages of human trials or poised to start. It’s a crowded field, but researchers say that only increases the odds that a few might overcome the many obstacles that remain.
“We’re not really in a competition against each other. We’re in a race against a pandemic virus, and we really need as many players in that race as possible,” Dr. Andrew Pollard, who is leading the University of Oxford’s vaccine study.
The hard truth: There’s no way to predict which — if any — vaccine will work safely, or even to name a front-runner.
As Dr. Anthony Fauci, the U.S. government’s top expert, put it: “You need more shots on goal for a chance at getting a safe and effective vaccine.”
Multiple shots, multiple ways: There are eight to 11 vaccine candidates in early stages of testing in China, the U.S., Britain and Germany — a collaboration between Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech last week began a study in Germany that’s simultaneously testing four somewhat different shots. More study sites are about to open in still other countries
— and between May and July another handful of different vaccines is set to begin first-in-human testing.
There’s no shortage of volunteers.
“This allows me to play a small role in fighting this thing,” said Anthony Campisi, 33, of Philadelphia, who received his first test dose of Inovio Pharmaceuticals’ DNA-based vaccine at the University of Pennsylvania last month. “I can be a guinea pig.”
The initial vaccine candidates work in a variety of ways. That’s important because if one type fails, maybe
another won’t.
Pros and cons: China’s Sinovac and SinoPharm are testing “inactivated” vaccines, made by growing the new coronavirus and killing it. The companies have revealed little about how the shots differ. But the technology is tried-and-true — polio shots and some types of flu vaccine are inactivated virus — although it’s hard to scale up to rapidly produce millions of doses.
Most other vaccines in the pipeline aim to train the immune system to recognize a piece of the new coronavirus — mostly, the spiky protein that studs its outer surface.
One way is to use a harmless virus to carry the spike protein into the body. It’s easier to produce but determining which virus is the best “carrier” is a key question.
Another way is to inject a piece of the coronavirus genetic code that instructs the body to produce spike protein that in turn primes the immune system to attack. It’s a new and unproven technology but one that promises even faster production.
Still more methods are next in line: A vaccine made of spike protein nanoparticles, and even a nasal spray alternative to shots.
Proving they work: Most vaccine studies are tracking safety and whether volunteers’ blood shows any immune reactions. Some have jumped to larger numbers quickly, but there’s still concern about being able to prove real-world protection.
If study participants are holed up at home or live where the virus has quit spreading rapidly, then too few may get sick for scientists to tell if the vaccine or social distancing was what protected them. The Oxford study, for example, will track about 1,000 people, half given the real vaccine. But the team plans a later-stage study with 5,000 volunteers for a final answer and knows it might have to move to other countries.
“When you’re chasing a pandemic, the place that looks like the right one to go to today will be the wrong place two weeks from now,” Pollard said.
Supplying the world: Whenever the first useful vaccine is identified, there won’t be enough for everyone. So a growing number of vaccine makers say they’re starting to brew tons of doses — wasting millions of dollars if they bet on the wrong candidate but shaving a few months off mass vaccinations if their choice pans out.
“We need to start building new manufacturing sites now,” said Wellcome Trust vaccine chief Charlie Weller. “And we need to accept that some of these sites will be created for vaccines that will ultimately fail.”
It’s not just a gamble for shareholders. The U.S. government already has deals with Moderna and Johnson & Johnson that together total nearly $1 billion and include scaling up production.
“The critical thing at the beginning is just to make as much stuff as we can,” said Dr. Richard Hatchett, CEO of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, which is funding several COVID-19 vaccine attempts around the world.
Even if one works, expect rationing early on as policymakers determine who most needs the first doses — possibly health workers or the elderly — until there’s enough for the world, rich and poor countries alike.