Spike in positive COVID-19 tests ominous sign for college football
By now we were hoping to pick up our preseason magazines and thumb through the pages knowing we were that much closer to the start of the college football season.
The coronavirus was supposed to be fading and schools would be conducting informal workouts while still adhering to guidelines that would result in something close to normalcy for the season.
And about a month ago that optimism was as thick as Ed Orgeron’s Cajun accent. But things have changed, numbers are headed in the wrong direction and even some of the optimistic voices from the spring are beginning to wonder if it will be possible to play college football in 2020.
As positive tests spike and some schools shut down workouts, Yahoo reported this week that one industry source says there is a mounting feeling of “overall discouragement” a season will kick off, and another revealed there is “more pessimism the last few days than in weeks.”
Giving voluntary on-campus workouts the green light early this month has also given COVID-19 fuel.
In the last week, 23 players have tested positive for the virus at Clemson, whose coach boasted 10 weeks ago the season would kick off with a stadium full of screaming fans, which certainly would end any debate about which is the real Death Valley.
Texas reported 13 positive tests and Kansas State shut down its voluntary workouts for two weeks after 14 players tested positive. At least 30 players at LSU were isolated because they either tested positive or were in contact with a teammate who tested positive. That outbreak occurred at a gathering off the field.
Houston put a halt to workouts after six positive tests, and within days after voluntary workouts ramped up at least eight players at Alabama came back positive. Florida has had 11 athletes from three sports — football, volleyball, soccer — test positive dating to April.
And these are just the schools we know of. Many, including the University of Miami, are keeping those results secret.
“We know that players are going to get sick, they’re going to get infected, whether it’s through the athletic program or just being on the campus or just being around,” said Dr. Rand McClain, the chief medical officer of LCR Health in Santa Monica, a regenerative and sports medicine clinic.
“We have to understand, this is not going to go away, it’s not going to be 100% eradicated and protected against if we’re going to play sports and we’re going to mingle.”
Cases are spiking among young adults in many states and most are asymptomatic. And the chances of that generation becoming seriously ill from the virus remain very low. But the chances of a young adult infecting an older person, like a coach, and that person becoming ill or worse, are much higher.
So, instead of looking at returning starters at key positions and depth charts to determine who has the best chance to make the College Football Playoff, the season could come down to which teams have the fewest players test positive for the coronavirus, how many of those are key players and what games will those key players miss.
Going to the lab will mean much more than devising a game plan.
Does Florida lose five starters the week of South Alabama or are the Gators in quarantine for the Georgia game?
Does an outbreak hit Ohio State or Oregon in early September, when those teams are scheduled to meet in a crucial nonconference game that could have playoff implications?
UCF’s chances of finally convincing the playoff committee it deserves to be in the conversation start early with games against Power Five opponents North Carolina and Georgia Tech. Will those September games be determined by who is being quarantined?
“What if it barrels through the entire first-string line?” said McClain, a Miami Hurricanes fan. “Are teams going to put in their second string or are they going to fold for two weeks so two games get canceled.”
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s leading expert on infectious disease, told us last week football needed to emulate the NBA and MLS and return in a “bubble.” College football, though, is played on campuses across the country by players who are required to attend class.
McClain does believe the restrictions college athletes will be under while on campus will help contain the virus and even reduce the risk, although, there is a rub.
“We’re talking about a group of people that is at a much higher risk just because of their nature,” McClain said. “The execution is going to be the issue not the theory. How many of these (athletes) are actually going to stay within the guidelines and not sneak to the corner bar and go visit their friends at 1 o’clock in the morning.”
First-year FAU coach Willie Taggart was asked on Monday if his players would have a curfew or anything else to help curtail the possibility of being infected while they are away from the coaches.
“No,” he said. “With this, it’s all about trust. We got to trust they make the right decisions away from here.”
For the majority of schools, weight training will begin July 13 with conditioning and meetings gradually intensifying. That gives them six weeks leading up to the first week of the season. At the current rate, who knows how many teams will have suspended their voluntary workouts by then.
But more importantly, who knows what this virus will look like in early September.
And although it is not looking good at the moment, McClain, for one, is hopeful.
“I’m an eternal optimist,” he said. “If you ask my opinion should we keep going, I would say absolutely because I really don’t think that it’s going to matter that much with the exception (that) we’re definitely breaking the rules in contact sports.
There’s obviously no social distancing there.
“I believe we are going to kick off. But I believe there are going to be a lot of fumbles.”