ECONOMY
consumer unease and renewed shutdowns. And much of the government support is on the verge of running out, with Washington at an impasse over next steps.
“In another world, a sharp drop in activity would have been just a good, necessary blip while we addressed the virus,” said Heather Boushey, president of the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, a progressive think tank. “From where we sit in July, we know that this wasn’t just a short-term blip. We did not get the virus under control.”
Data from Europe shows what might have been.
Germany on Thursday reported a drop in second-quarter GDP that was even steeper than the U.S. decline. But in Germany, coronavirus cases fell sharply and remain low, which has allowed a much stronger economic rebound in recent weeks.
In the United States, the rebound appears to have stalled. More than 1.4 million Americans filed new claims for state unemployment benefits last week, the Labor Department said Thursday. It was the 19th consecutive week that the tally exceeded 1 million — an unheard-of figure before the pandemic.
A further 830,000 people filed for benefits under the federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program, which supports freelancers, the self-employed and other workers not covered by traditional unemployment benefits.
In total, about 30 million people are receiving unemployment benefits, a number that has come down only slowly as new layoffs — many of them permanent job losses, as opposed to the spring’s temporary furloughs — offset gradual rehiring.
Some economists fear that the monthly jobs report coming next week will show that total employment fell in July after two months of strong gains. The slow recovery, and signs of backsliding, are taking a toll on consumer confidence, which fell in July after rising in June.
“Not only have we plateaued, but we may be losing ground,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at the accounting firm Grant
Thornton in Chicago. “To have these kinds of numbers in July when many in Congress hoped this would be over by summer underscores how unique and persistent the COVID crisis is.”
The economic collapse in the second quarter was unrivaled in its speed and breathtaking in its severity. The decline was more than twice as large as in the Great Recession a decade ago, but occurred in a fraction of the time. The only possible comparisons in modern American history came during the Great Depression and the demobilization after World War II, both of which predated modern economic statistics.
Economists and epidemiologists alike describe the U.S. failure to control the virus during the initial shutdown as a missed opportunity. The government’s efforts at financial support were largely successful: After plummeting in March and April, retail sales rose in May and June as stimulus payments and a $600 weekly federal supplement to unemployment benefits began flowing into consumers’ bank accounts. Loans made under the Paycheck Protection Program allowed small businesses to begin bringing back furloughed workers.
The wave of evictions and foreclosures that many economists predicted early in the recession largely failed to materialize. But those programs have expired or are about to do so. And efforts to extend them have been delayed in Congress by disagreements — between the parties, and among Republicans — about how and how much to spend.
“The lesson from the early policy experiments is that it is possible to support the income of people and to offset those financial constraints,” said Tara Sinclair, a George Washington University economist and a senior fellow at the Indeed Hiring Lab. “But now as of today, we’re not going to have that anymore.”
The GDPreport shows the severity of the temporary slowdown and hints at evidence of more lasting damage. Consumer spending fell 10.1%, led by a near-total collapse in spending on restaurant meals, recreational activities and other services. Even health care spending fell, as patients canceled elective procedures and delayed routine care.