2 can challenge Tiz the Law
Max Player, Honor A.P. have enough talent to buck the odds and grab win vs. Derby favorite
Tiz the Law has checked every box possible for a Kentucky Derby favorite.
The son of Constitution has won four straight graded stakes races, including the Travers at the classic distance of 1 1⁄ miles.
4 Usually we have to wait until the first Saturday in May to find out which horses have the speed and stamina to hang on for that distance, but due to the pandemicrelated shuffle of Triple Crown events we know for sure Tiz the Law is one of those horses.
However, the race still needs to be run, and with a large field of 18 horses, anything can happen, including a historic upset.
Here are two horses best suited to make their surprising mark on history:
No. 2 Max Player (30-1)
Max Player improved his final Brisnet speed figure in every race he has run, culminating in two triple-digit speed figures in his last two races, both losses to Tiz the Law in Grade 1 stakes.
That last race was also classified as a fast-fast race, meaning both the pace and final time were above average for a Grade 1 stakes. Any horse exiting those races deserves extra consideration, especially any horse that doesn’t collapse under the pressure.
Max Player closed the last quarter-mile of the Travers in 25.2 seconds, second only to the eventual winner.
“I’m extremely excited about how he’s going to run in the Kentucky Derby,” said Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen, who recently took over training duties from Linda Rice. “I love how he looks going over the racetrack.
“His attitude is really good. He came in with a really good attitude and was moving really well. That has stayed the same.”
Saturday’s pace scenario could also help Max Player find the winner’s circle.
There are a few front-runners in this race that should help his closing style, particularly Authentic and King Guillermo. Both of those horses should be out in front early and create a fast tempo that allows horses further back to have a fighting chance.
No. 16 Honor A. P. (5-1)
Honor A.P. gave a career effort in his Santa Anita Derby win, setting highs for final speed and pace, per Brisnet. That’s also known as a double top, a negative pattern that often indicates a worse effort next out.
No wonder he took a step back in the Shared Belief Stakes at Del Mar, losing to Thousand Words by three-quarters of a length. That doesn’t mean you should discount his chances Saturday. His last two speed figures were at or above par for the Kentucky Derby, and the one he earned in the Santa Anita Derby (108) is the third fastest in the field.
Plus, his sire, Honor Code, was also a highly decorated route runner, winning the Grade 1 Whitney Stakes and the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes at 1 1⁄ miles.
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Nine of the last 11 Derby winners were sired by a horse who won at least one Grade 1 route race, a race 1 mile or longer.