Way-too-early look at top prospects
While the NFL moves forward with an unaltered schedule, college football has been thrown into disarray.
As the Kansas City Chiefs prepare to host the Houston Texans on Thursday night, the first full weekend of college football will take place without two Power 5 conferences — the Big Ten and Pac-12 — as well as the Mountain West and Mid-American. Most of the FCS has also decided to shut down, and the teams that are active are playing fewer games, often without fans in attendance.
It will be an unprecedented scouting season for the NFL’s top decision-makers, who might not get to see some of the game’s top prospects compete in 2020.
With that in mind, here are The Baltimore Sun’s initial first-round projections for the 2021 NFL draft.
Note: The order is determined by ESPN’s Football Power Index win projections.
1. Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson After trading defensive stars Jalen Ramsey, Calais Campbell, A.J. Bouye and Yannick Ngakoue and releasing former No. 4 overall pick Leonard Fournette, the Jaguars are in rebuilding mode just three years after reaching the AFC championship game.
2. Washington: Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU Until Washington adds more playmakers, Dwayne Haskins have a tough time elevating an offense that ranked third-worst in efficiency in 2019. Chase, who opted out of the season to prepare for the draft, set SEC records with 1,780 receiving yards and 20 touchdowns.
3. Bengals: Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon The Bengals need to surround Joe Burrow with weapons and protect him. NFL analyst and former pro scout Daniel Jeremiah said he sees Pro Bowl potential in Sewell because of his ideal size, quickness and power.
4. Panthers: Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State Teddy Bridgewater signed a threeyear, $63 million contract this offseason, but it’s hard to envision new coach Matt Rhule passing up the chance to select a potential star at the game’s most valuable position.
5. Giants: Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State Parsons might not play a valuable position, but he’s freaky athletic and had the second-highest single-season run-defense grade in scouting website Pro Football Focus history in 2019. He could help fix a defense that ranked 27th in efficiency last season.
6. Dolphins: Gregory Rousseau, EDGE, Miami Coach Brian Flores would love to get his hands on a player of Rousseau’s caliber to add some pass-rushing punch to his defense. The Hurricanes star still has to refine his game, but his athletic traits are undeniable and well worth taking a chance on with a top-10 pick.
7. Lions: Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue With Marvin Jones and Danny Amendola hitting free agency after this season, a wide receiver could be the team’s biggest need. But Detroit could go several directions if they find themselves picking in the top 10 yet again.
8. Jets: Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama NewYork traded star safety Jamal Adams to Seattle and big-ticket free-agent linebacker C.J. Mosley opted out of the season, depleting an already-thin roster of talent. This season will mark Surtain’s third as a starter for the Crimson Tide.
9. Raiders: Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State Jon Gruden is known for his wandering eye when it comes to quarterbacks. If Derek Carr disappoints this season and Marcus Mariota shows he doesn’t have what it takes to be a starter anymore, will Gruden and general manager Mike Mayock look for an upgrade in the draft?
10. Cardinals: Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia
Tech With star cornerback Patrick Peterson set to hit the open market in 2021, the Cardinals might be looking to replace the eight-time Pro Bowl selection. Farley, who opted out of the 2020 season, has the size, speed and athleticism to be a differencemaker from Day One.
11. Broncos: Alex Leatherwood, OT, Alabama Which side of the ball will general manager John Elway prioritize? Leatherwood played well in his first season at left tackle in 2019, allowing only nine pressures, according to PFF. He can step in at guard or tackle to help a burgeoning offense.
12. Falcons: Carlos Basham Jr., EDGE, Wake Forest Atlanta could use help in the secondary, especially with longtime starter Keanu Neal hitting free agency. But with Takkarist McKinley also set to reach the open market, an explosive pass rusher like Basham might be more worthwhile.
13. Dolphins (via Texans): Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama Tua Tagovailoa might not be the Dolphins’ starting quarterback yet, but he almost certainly will be by this time next year. What better gift to give the new signal-caller than his old Alabama teammate?
14. Chargers: Samuel Cosmi, OT, Texas The Chargers don’t have a clear long-term plan at left tackle after trading Russell Okung for guard Trai Turner this offseason. After using the No. 6 overall pick on Justin Herbert, Los Angeles will likely prioritize protecting their young quarterback.
15. Bears: Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota No matter who is playing quarterback in 2021 for the Bears, he’s going to need better wideouts to throw to. That’s going to be even more important if Allen Robinson heads elsewhere in free agency.
16. Packers: DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama Mocking a wide receiver to the Packers feels like a fool’s errand at this point, but Green Bay can’t keep the cupboard this bare for much longer with Aaron Rodgers at the helm, right? Smith played in the shadow of Henry Ruggs, Jerry Jeudy and Jaylen Waddle at Alabama.
17. Browns: Dylan Moses, LB, Alabama The Browns lost starting linebackers Joe Schobert and Christian Kirksey in free agency, leaving some holes in the middle of their defense. Moses has to answer medical concerns after tearing his ACL last year, and he hasn’t yet shown a knack for pass coverage, but he’s a strong tackler and a physical presence.
18. Jaguars (via Rams): Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida It’s hard to know what position the Jaguars will target after presumably landing their quarterback of the future at the top of the draft. Pitts, at 6-foot-6, is an intriguing possibility, giving Lawrence a dynamic weapon in the passing game.
19. Titans: Kwity Paye, EDGE, Michigan If last-minute free-agent addition Jadeveon Clowney enjoys his time in Tennessee, maybe the Titans won’t have to worry about adding another pass rusher. Even if Clowney does stay, Paye might be too tempting to pass up. 20. Vikings: Wyatt Davis, G, Ohio State What happens with safety Anthony Harris and running back Dalvin Cook in free agency might determine what the Vikings end up doing with their first-round pick. Davis could help bolster the interior of a line that struggled at times in 2019.
21. Patriots: Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama The Patriots defense ended last season as the league’s most efficient unit, but they’ll be seeking some reinforcements. Barmore has a nose for the ball and flashed the kind of strength and power as a redshirt freshman that could make him a force to be reckoned with at the next level.
22. Colts: Ar’Darius Washington, S, TCU Assuming quarterback Philip Rivers and wide receiver T.Y. Hilton stay, the secondary will need the most help. Washington doesn’t have prototypical size at 5-8, 175 pounds, but he’s instinctive and reliable.
23. Bills: Pat Freiermuth, TE, Penn State Buffalo got just 459 yards and three touchdowns from the tight end combination of Dawson Knox and Tyler Kroft in 2019. Freiermuth won’t play in 2020, but he showed plenty of potential in his first two college seasons, catching 15 touchdown passes.
24. Steelers: Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson Seeking to rediscover the heights of the former Killer B’s, the Steelers might opt for an explosive playmaker at running back in Etienne, who broke the PFF record for broken tackles per carry last season with 91 on 207 attempts.
25. Jets (via Seahawks): Tutu Atwell, WR, Louisville If QB Sam Darnold is going to reach his potential, he needs more playmakers by his side. Atwell set school records with 1,276 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns last season.
26. Eagles: Jevon Holland, S, Oregon The Eagles bolstered their secondary this offseason with the additions of cornerbacks Darius Slay and Nickell Robey-Coleman, but it’s far from a finished product. Holland has shown a nose for the ball with nine interceptions the past two seasons.
27. Buccaneers: Marvin Wilson, DT, Florida State Wilson might not become a star at his position, but he’s powerful, hard to move and instinctive and can be a reliable starter for a team looking to win now with quarterback Tom Brady.
28. Cowboys: Chris Rumph II, EDGE, Duke Veteran Everson Griffen was a solid late addition, but the Cowboys could use more help on the defensive line. Rumph was quietly one of the best pass rushers in the country in 2019.
29. 49ers: Shaun Wade, CB, Ohio State A slot cornerback throughout his college career, Wade will have to prove he’s capable of more without any game tape to show in 2020. Still, he’s a great athlete who has proved he can stick to receivers.
30. Ravens: Aidan Hutchinson, EDGE, Michigan If the Ravens target an edge rusher in the draft, they’ll have an intriguing collection to choose from. Hutchinson might be the safest pick at this spot, having shown consistency and versatility in his two seasons at Michigan, earning All-Big Ten honors in 2019 with10½ tackles for loss and 4½ sacks.
31. Saints: Nick Bolton, LB, Missouri Bolton is not only a good run defender, but tied for the team lead with 10 passes defended last season and earned a PFF grade of 90.4 in pass coverage.
32. Chiefs: Trey Smith, G, Tennessee The Chiefs signed Kelechi Osemele late in the offseason to fill in at left guard, and while he could get back to being the Pro Bowl player he was three seasons ago, Kansas City could still use some depth along the offensive line.