Wild-card round
Record against the spread: Last week: 9-7. Season: 131-119-6.
Colts at Bills
Saturday, 1:05 p.m. ET. Bills by 6½. O/U: 51½.
Colts keys: Even if they don’t stockpile sacks, they can’t let quarterback Josh Allen beat them with his legs.
Bills keys: Keep doing what they’ve done. Since their week off, the Bills have won by 10, 10, 11, 29, 29 and 30 points.
Farmer’s pick: Whereas Indianapolis was up and down at the end of the season, Buffalo was a “Hail Murray” away from winning its last 10 games. The Bills are highly motivated, and their defense is playing better. Allen is the best player on the field. Bills 27, Colts 23
Rams at Seahawks
Saturday, 4:40 p.m. Seahawks by 3. O/U: 42.
Rams keys: They have to be able to run the ball. Pete Carroll’s defense is going to sell out to stop the run, paving the way to cut loose the pass rushers as the game progresses.
Seahawks keys: No more worrying about risking Russell Wilson. Do whatever’s necessary to manufacture a time-of-possession and field-position advantage.
Farmer’s pick: Seattle’s offense has cooled in the second half of the season, and injuries to Jamal Adams and Jarran Reed are troubling. The return of Andrew Whitworth and Cooper Kupp are key to Rams’ offense. Rams 24, Seahawks 20
Buccaneers at Washington
Saturday, 8:15 p.m. Buccaneers by 8. O/U: 44½.
Buccaneers keys: They have to have a running game that keeps Washington’s pass rush at bay, and protect Tom Brady. . With Mike Evans hobbled, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown need to pick up the receiving slack.
Washington keys: Win with defense. . They can’t put Alex Smith into situations in which he’s under duress.
Farmer’s pick: This is isn’t a great matchup for Brady, even with as well has he’s been playing the past eight quarters. Washington’s defensive front is ferocious. But Washington is going to struggle to move the ball against Tampa’s defense. Bucs 27, Washington 17
Ravens at Titans
Sunday, 1:05 p.m. Ravens by 3. O/U: 54½.
Ravens keys: In last season’s playoff loss to Tennessee, Lamar Jackson threw 59 times. He needs to cut that total in half. . Ravens need to establish the run against a vulnerable Tennessee defense.
Titans keys: They need to protect their defense with their offense. . Shoot for 38 minutes of possession.
Farmer’s pick: As well as Henry and Tannehill have played this season, that defense is a problem. Baltimore will play keep-away by grinding it out on the ground, and the Ravens exact revenge for last season’s playoff loss. Ravens 31, Titans 24
Bears at Saints
Sunday, 4:40 p.m. Saints by 10. O/U: 47.
Bears keys: Get Mitch Trubisky outside the pocket and let him make some of the plays he’s made toward the end of the season. . Let David Montgomery run.
Saints keys: Keep Trubisky from getting to the edges. Keep him in the pocket. . Clamp down and play one-on-one on Chicago’s receivers.
Farmer’s pick: The Saints are 10 points better. Brees is far better and far more seasoned than Trubisky, and New Orleans is getting a ton of offensive weapons back. If the Saints play their game, they win going away. Saints 34, Bears 21
Browns at Steelers
Sunday, 8:15 p.m. Steelers by 6. O/U: 47½.
Browns keys: Put the game on the shoulders of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Two tight ends. Run like crazy.
Steelers keys: They have to run the ball too. They need at least four explosive plays down the field (and Cleveland turnovers count as explosives).
Farmer’s pick: It’s tempting to take the Browns, but COVID has stripped them of players and their head coach. The excitement of getting into the playoffs could be an emotional drain too. Pittsburgh is more seasoned and hangs on. Steelers 21, Browns 17