North Carolina Tar Heels (28-9) vs. Duke Blue Devils (32-6)
Top perofrmers: Banchero is scoring
17.1 points per game and averaging 7.8 rebounds for the Blue Devils. Mark Williams is averaging 9.1 points and 6.1 rebounds over the last 10 games for Duke. Bacot is shooting 58.6% and averaging 16.5 points for the Tar Heels. Brady Manek is averaging 2.1 made 3-pointers over the last 10 games for North Carolina.
Last 10 games: Blue Devils: 8-2, averaging 80.1 points, 28.5 rebounds, 12.3 assists,
5.4 steals and 6.1 blocks per game while shooting 54.3% from the field. Their opponents have averaged 71.5 points per game. Tar Heels: 9-1, averaging 79.8 points, 41.6 rebounds, 16.6 assists, 5.2 steals and 3.8 blocks per game while shooting 44.0% from the field. Their opponents have averaged 68.9 points.
ADVANCED STATS Duke Pomeroy rank: Strengths:
7
The Blue Devils are the top team in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency, and they’ve shown it in the tournament. They scored 78 points in 67 possessions in the Sweet 16 against Texas Tech, which has the country’s top defense. Duke doesn’t rely that heavily on the 3, which makes sense since the Blue Devils are shooting 56.3% from inside the arc, the eighth-best mark in the nation.
Weaknesses: The defense is 45th in adjusted efficiency. Specifically, Duke isn’t good at forcing turnovers and has some issues on the defensive boards.
In this tournament: It’s been an offensive show for the Blue Devils. In addition to that game against Texas Tech, Duke scored 85 points in 66 possessions against Michigan State in the second round, and 78 in 70 against Arkansas in the regional final. The Blue Devils are shooting 60% from 2-point range in this tournament.
North Carolina Pomeroy rank: Strengths:
16
North Carolina is a tricky team to evaluate because its season stats are pedestrian for a Final Four team — but the Tar Heels seem to have turned a corner over the past month. According to the rankings at barttorvik.com, North Carolina has been the most efficient team in the country since March 1.
Weaknesses: On the season, North Carolina has an effective field goal percentage (eFG) of just 52.0. The Tar Heels’ defense has allowed an opposing eFG of 48.8%, and the other three remaining teams are at 47.0% or lower. In this tournament: In the NCAA Tournament, North Carolina’s offensive eFG is 51.9%, not much different from the rest of the season. But the team’s defensive eFG is an impressive 40.9%. And that’s not just because the Tar Heels blew out 15th-seeded Saint Peter’s. They also held top-seeded Baylor to an eFG of 40.1%.