Breaking down top farm system
Interesting position groups at each of minor league affiliates
The rebuild is over, but the building never really ends.
There’s renewed excitement and expectations for the big league club, but the Orioles still own the top farm system in baseball.
For the first time since Baseball America began ranking prospects in 1984, the publication this offseason crowned the Orioles’ collection of young talent as the best in the sport. In total, 10 Orioles prospects were recognized by a major top 100 prospect list.
While the Triple-A season began last weekend, the rest of the Orioles’ full-season minor league affiliates start their 2023 campaigns Thursday. After minor league spring training ended last week, the organization announced the roster assignments, including No. 2 pitching prospect DL Hall to Triple-A Delmarva, 2020 second-overall draft pick Heston Kjerstad to Double-A Bowie and 2022 s top selection Jackson Holliday to Low-A Delmarva.
But there’s much more to the Orioles’ farm system than those high-profile names. Here’s the most interesting position group at each of the Orioles’ minor league affiliates.
Low-A Delmarva: Catchers
The most interesting player opening the season with the Shorebirds is obviously Holliday, who performed well in his brief time in major league spring training at just 19 years old. The organization’s No. 3 prospect, according to Baseball America, started in rookie ball last summer after being drafted but then posted a .772 OPS in 12 games with Delmarva to end the year.
While Holliday and fellow infielders Carter Young and Anderson De Los Santos form an interesting bunch, the 2023 season is one in which the organization will learn a lot about two of its top minor league catchers.
The Orioles have put heavy investments into catchers Samuel Basallo and Creed Willems, both of whom are opening the season in Low-A. Basallo, now the club’s top catching prospect and No. 15 overall in the organization, is perhaps the best Orioles prospect to come from the international market. The $1.3 million signing bonus the Orioles gave Basallo as an international free agent in 2021 is one of the largest foreign investments made by the club since executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias took over in November 2018.
The 2023 season will be Basallo’s first in full-season ball, as the 18-year-old spent 2021 in the Dominican Summer League and 2022 in the Florida Complex League. He slashed .279/.350/.424 in 43 rookie ball games last season.
Willems, meanwhile, is back with Delmarva after struggling last year with a .190 batting average in 68 games. The Orioles gave Willems a $1 million signing bonus — well over slot — after selecting him out of high school in the eighth round of the 2021 draft.
The Orioles have their big league catching position settled for at least several years in Adley Rutschman, but a homegrown backup
to take the load off as Rutschman ages is important. Whether Basallo or Willems can reach that level could depend on how they perform this year.
High-A Aberdeen: Outfielders
Kjerstad ended his 2022 regular season with the IronBirds, but he’s not the reason why this group is one to follow throughout 2023.
Kjerstad made his long-awaited return to the diamond in 2022 after missing two years with heart and hamstring ailments, reaching High-A before winning the Arizona Fall League Most Valuable Player Award. But Kjerstad is starting in Double-A after his outstanding spring, during which he posted a 1.219 OPS in big league camp.
Aberdeen won’t have any problem staffing a talented outfield, though, as prospects Dylan Beavers and Jud Fabian will open the year there.
Beavers, No. 11 on the Orioles’ prospect list according to Baseball America, was the team’s second selection of the 2022 draft in the Competitive Balance A round after Holliday went No. 1 overall. The 21-year-old played just 23 minor league games last year, but he slashed .322/.438/.460 and ended the year in Aberdeen.
Fabian, the No. 14 prospect in the organization, was also a 2022 draftee as the Orioles’ fourth selection in the Competitive Balance B round. The 22-year-old followed a similar path as Beavers last year, starting in rookie ball, dominating Low-A (1.322 OPS in 10 games) and ending the season in Aberdeen.
Another high draft pick opening the year in Aberdeen is Reed Trimble, whom the Orioles selected in the Competitive Balance B round in 2021. The 22-year-old returned last year from offseason shoulder surgery and hit .291 in 31 games with Delmarva.
Double-A Bowie: Starting pitchers
This was perhaps the most difficult level to choose one, as there’s significant talent at nearly every group — Kjerstad and John Rhodes in the outfield and Coby Mayo and César Prieto on the infield.
But the starting pitchers opening the year in Double-A are important for an organization that, despite having the top farm system in the sport, lacks pitching prospect depth. Only two of the Orioles’ top 12 prospects on Baseball America are pitchers (Rodriguez and Hall).
Several of the Orioles’ second-tier pitching prospects, however, are in the Baysox’s rotation. Cade Povich, Chayce McDermott, Justin Armbruester and Carlos Tavera are all ranked in the top 30 of the Orioles’ system and will start for Bowie.
Povich, the Orioles’ No. 3 pitching prospect, was acquired from the Minnesota Twins in the Jorge López trade last summer. The left-hander posted a 4.50 ERA and 30.8% strikeout rate between High-A and Double-A last year. McDermott, a 24-year-old right-hander, was also acquired at the deadline when the Orioles sent Trey Mancini to the Houston Astros. McDermott’s strikeout numbers are even more impressive than Povich’s, as the righthander has a career 36.9% strikeout rate in 125 minor league innings, although his 13.8% walk rate is partly why he has a 5.11 ERA.
Another swing-and-miss right-hander, Tavera gets the promotion to Double-A after posting a 32.9% strikeout rate in 16 starts with Aberdeen last year. Armbruester, meanwhile, is a strike thrower, walking just 7.2% of his batters with a 3.85 ERA in 117 innings between Aberdeen and Bowie in 2022.
Peter Van Loon, who won 11 games with a 3.25 ERA and a 25.9% strikeout rate in High-A last year, is also opening the season in Bowie.
Triple-A Norfolk: Infielders
Some of the pitchers who opened the season in the Tides’ starting rotation — with MLB-experienced starters Bruce Zimmermann and Spenser Watkins and prospects Hall and Drew Rom — will likely play a role on the 2023 Orioles. Manager Brandon Hyde said during spring training that he expects to see Zimmermann, Watkins and Hall back in Baltimore sometime this season.
However, despite the rotation’s intrigue, it would be malpractice not to choose Norfolk’s infielders — the best group in the Orioles’ farm system and perhaps one of the best groups in all of minor league baseball. Three top 100 prospects will man the Tides’ infield — Jordan Westburg, Joey Ortiz and Connor Norby — and all of them have the opportunity to make their major league debut this season.
Westburg, ranked No. 6 in the Orioles’ system, spent all of spring training in big league camp, impressing both Elias and Hyde and hitting .306 with seven extra-base hits in 57 plate appearances. The 24-yearold was named the Orioles’ Brooks Robinson Minor League Player of the Year in 2022 after driving in 106 runs in 138 games. He’s the most versatile of the group with the ability to play second, third and shortstop.
Norby, a second baseman, led all Orioles minor leaguers with 29 home runs last year. And Ortiz, the best defender of the group, improved at the plate in the second half of 2022.
In addition to the exciting prospects, lefthanded hitters Ryan O’Hearn, Josh Lester and Lewin Díaz will split first base duties as insurance if Orioles first baseman Ryan Mountcastle is injured this season or as a potential call-up for a bench bat.