Climb to the top
As Ravens try to hold on to AFC’s No. 1 seed, a fierce gantlet awaits
Do they want to be the No. 1 seed in the AFC, a status that did them little good the last time they earned it in 2019? Of course the Ravens do.
“We want it bad,” linebacker Patrick Queen said as they started preparations for the Jacksonville Jaguars, the first foe in a vicious three-game run that will likely determine where and when the Ravens begin their postseason.
They didn’t start the season explicitly aiming for the top seed and the first-round bye that comes with it.
Back in September, they were more apt to talk about returning to the playoffs for the fifth time in six seasons or reclaiming supremacy in the AFC North, which they haven’t won since 2019.
Now that the top spot is clearly within reach, however — they would earn it if they win their last four games — why deny it’s a tasty objective?
“Obviously, you work all year to get in the playoffs, that’s the No. 1 thing, and then you’ve got an opportunity to separate yourself from the pack,” right tackle Morgan Moses said. “You want to do that. Our home is a different feel. You can tell by the false starts the opposing teams have been getting. So obviously, home-field advantage is a big thing.”
To see the wisdom in this, they need only look to Kansas City, where the Chiefs made the Super Bowl three of the past four years without ever playing a road playoff game.
On Wednesday, the Ravens announced tickets for a potential home wild-card game — which they could avoid by earning that No. 1 seed — would go on sale Friday morning, making the impending postseason feel that much more concrete.
“Every game counts,” Moses said. “But now, it’s like it counts double.”
Though many projection systems — ESPN, New York Times, Aaron Schatz’s defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) — list the Ravens as a clear favorite to hold onto the AFC’s No. 1 seed and earn a firstround playoff bye, they won’t face a single pushover on their trek to that summit.
They’re favored for their Sunday night contest against the Jaguars and almost certainly will be for their New Year’s Eve showdown with the Miami Dolphins, their closest pursuer in the conference standings. But both those teams feature star quarterbacks, Trevor Lawrence for the Jaguars and Tua Tagovailoa for the Dolphins, with dangerous playmakers at their disposal. Both rank top 10 in DVOA, a play-by-play measure of total efficiency.
Those critical AFC games are sandwiched around a Christmas night slugfest with the San Francisco 49ers, only the top seed in the NFC and the fifth best team through 13 games, as measured by DVOA, since 1981. Think of the ground that covers, but the 49ers are loaded on both sides of the ball, with a trio of superstar playmakers — running back Christian McCaffrey and wide receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk — supporting quarterback Brock Purdy, not to mention the league’s top scoring defense led by All-Pro candidates Fred Warner and Nick Bosa.
Though the Ravens have already matched their win total from last season and could clinch a playoff berth as early as Sunday, their grip on the top spot in the conference, and even the top spot in the AFC North, is less certain. If they go 2-2 against the league’s toughest remaining schedule, they could be passed by the Dolphins, the Chiefs (with the seventh easiest remaining schedule, per DVOA) or even the Cleveland Browns, suddenly resurgent with former Raven Joe Flacco at quarterback.
Coach John Harbaugh, who’s looking to make the playoffs for the 11th time in his 16-year tenure, doesn’t want his team obsessing over such calculations. He knows one thing for sure: all nine playoff-clinching scenarios available to the Ravens this weekend hinge on defeating the Jaguars.
“There’s no No. 1 seed,” Harbaugh said. “There’s no such thing as that right now. Just because they put a bracket on the TV screen, it doesn’t mean anything. It’s what you do. So our guys understand that we have to go earn everything we get, and if we earn it, then
we’ll get it. If we don’t earn it, we won’t. So, we’re going to try to win as many games as we can, climb as high as we can.”
Good luck getting players to talk about the opponents that await beyond Jacksonville. Asked if he sees this trio of matchups with fellow division leaders as a useful playoff
preview, quarterback Lamar Jackson did not bite.
“I like playing football,” he said. “So it really doesn’t matter.”
Fair enough.
But Moses is in his 10th season and had suited up for exactly two playoff games before he came to Baltimore last year, so he takes none of this for granted.
“There’s a lot of teams around the league right now that are not playing for this opportunity we have,” Moses said. “You’ve got to lock in. You’ve got to be focused. You’ve got to be grateful. It doesn’t come around often. You’ve got guys in this locker room who’ve been in the league 10 years and never sniffed the playoffs.”
Fans debate whether the Ravens might be better off playing in the wild-card round given how flat they came out against the Tennessee Titans after their first-round bye in 2019. But if that’s at all a discussion within the team, it’s one for later.
For Queen, the stretch ahead is about more than securing a particular playoff path. He doesn’t want the Ravens stumbling toward their destiny.
“You don’t want anybody to be able to say, ‘Yes, we got one on you,’” he said. “You want to be dominant. You want to be fierce. You want to be feared. You want to go into the playoffs knowing everybody has the mindset of, ‘Man, we have to play Baltimore.’ So, I think when we go into these last four games, we’re looking to just dominate everybody. Everybody’s on our list.”