Caution needed in wake of Iran’s thwarted attack on Israel
Continued calls for caution from Western leaders around the world, including President Joe Biden, in the wake of Iran’s missile and drone attack against Israel this weekend are a sensible response even as Israel signals plans for retaliation, given the stakes and uncertainties involved.
This was the first direct military attack on Israeli territory from the Islamic Republic. Tehran is alleged to have hurled toward Israel no fewer than 150 missiles (including 30 cruise missiles) and 170 drones carrying explosives, a level of ordinance that could have been devastating. But Israel’s “iron dome” air defenses — assisted by substantial military and technological assistance from the U.S. and other allies, including Jordan in this instance — proved even more formidable than advertised, reportedly producing a 99% interception rate and preventing all but minimal damage to a targeted military airbase. One person, a young girl, was seriously injured.
If Iran’s purpose was to demonstrate Israel’s military superiority, it accomplished this masterfully. Indeed, the focus now on how Israel may respond militarily seems almost beside the point. Israel won this encounter. We know it. They know it. The world can see it as well.
The Iranian attack was in response to the death of seven Islamic Revolutionary Guard leaders in Israel’s own attack on Damascus on April 1. And it appears to have been intended as a one-anddone. In a statement issued by Iran after the attack, officials indicated that the “matter can be deemed concluded.”
But they also warned that a response by Israel, which the country yesterday promised was coming, could cause a dramatic escalation in the conflict.
Inflammatory rhetoric is nothing new from Iran, of course, and Israel reliably takes the view that any potential military response will be at the time and place of its choosing. Yet taking no military action, at least not an escalatory one, could prove Israel’s best strategy of all. The scale of Iran’s attack — and the risk of a World War III coming out of the Middle East — has surely sent a chill around the world. Iran will find few sympathizers, but Israel may find greater support. And that could prove timely given there is one war that Israel has
Inflammatory rhetoric is nothing new from Iran, of course, and Israel reliably takes the view that any potential military response will be at the time and place of its choosing. Yet taking no military action, at least not an escalatory one, could prove Israel’s best strategy of all.
been losing of late, and that’s the battle for international support for its actions in Gaza. More than 30,000 Palestinians have died, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry, since Israel’s war on Gaza was launched after the Oct. 7 raid, and even many who recognize Hamas as a terrorist organization think more must be done to lower the civilian body count.
The answer, however, is not to match Iran bluster for bluster, as Donald Trump apparently would have. After the attack, he reposted an all-caps social media post from 2018 that warned Iran could face consequences “THE LIKES OF WHICH FEW THROUGHOUT HISTORY
HAVE EVER SUFFERED BEFORE.”
Obviously, a tempered approach isn’t going to excite anyone. You don’t get your voter base to the polls by telling them you are following a cautious path even when it’s so clearly the best one to travel. Advocating for greater economic sanctions on Iran, more than warranted under the circumstances, doesn’t have the impact on public opinion that military action does. This is one of the major conundrums facing Biden and the Democrats. The incumbent is likely to continue to take lumps from his party’s liberal wing for not doing more to reduce civilian casualties in Gaza. Yet these same detractors should recognize that the death and destruction rained down so far would be dwarfed by a greater conflict with Iran.
“Slow things down” as Biden is said to have told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may not be a stirring slogan, but it suggests that the president possesses some wisdom to go with his years.