Which top prospect will get nod?

Coby Mayo, Heston Kjerstad, Connor Norby tearing up Triple-A

The Orioles finally ripped the Band-Aid off, calling up second baseman Jackson Holliday last week to put an end to the question of when they would add baseball’s consensus top prospect to their major league roster. So, who’s next?

While calling up a prospect of Holliday’s caliber would be enough for most organizations to quell any talk of young players being stuck in Triple-A, the Orioles aren’t most organizations. They still have several prospects suiting up for the Norfolk Tides every day who have already shown they can handle pitching at that level, namely corner infielder Coby Mayo, outfielder Heston Kjerstad, second baseman Connor Norby and outfielder Kyle Stowers.

“They’re off to sensational starts,” executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias said on Saturday. “We’re watching every bit of it. Really proud of those guys, really excited about them. Couple of them [are] on the younger side, still learning some things on defense. Still, really ahead of the curve for their age group.”

Mayo (No. 24 on Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects list) entered the week leading the Tides with a .369 batting average with five home runs. Including last season, he’s played 77 games at Triple-A and posted a .951 OPS. He earned the praise of manager Brandon Hyde for his improvement at third base during spring training and added first to his defensive repertoire in recent seasons.

With the Orioles’ corner infield spots blocked by third baseman Jordan Westburg and first baseman Ryan Mountcastle, both of whom are off to hot starts this season, the only path to playing time for Mayo right now with everyone healthy is at designated hitter.

Even putting aside that the Orioles would have to designate either Ramón Urías or Jorge Mateo for assignment to make room for him on the roster, Ryan O’Hearn already starts at DH against right-handed pitchers. That would leave Mayo with an irregular role as a short-sided platoon option who doesn’t play the field much.

“They know that this is a tough egg to crack right now,” Elias said. “But if you’re them, I think it’s a little bit of a double-edged thing because they’ve been getting great development in our system and this is a really good player development system and environment. They benefit from that and it’s put them kind of ahead of their peers, and they’re focused guys. They’re going to keep going. They’re going to wait for their name to be called and it will be.”

If Triple-A stats were the lone qualifier for such a decision, Kjerstad (No. 42) would already be back up in the majors. He’s already racked up a staggering 27 RBIs on seven home runs and four doubles in 15 games, quickly putting a slow spring behind him by winning Minor League Player of the Week honors to open the season. His 1.208 OPS is the third-highest of any player in Triple-A.

Yet he’s also blocked by a deep outfield group that includes Anthony Santander, Cedric Mullins, Austin Hays and Colton Cowser. Mullins and Cowser are both left-handed, like Kjerstad, while Santander is a switch hitter. Even if Austin Hays continues to struggle, trading or cutting him would create a logjam of left-handed outfielders. Once again, the player standing in the way is O’Hearn, who also is left-handed and isn’t going anywhere right now given his hot start.

Unless an injury arises or O’Hearn cools off dramatically, the only real path for any of these prospects to get called up soon is for another young player to merit a demotion. Cowser, the reigning American League Player of the Week, has looked much more comfortable in his second stint with the Orioles, blocking out both Kjerstad and Stowers, another lefty. That leaves Holliday, who has just one hit over his first five games. If he cannot overcome his early struggles and needs more time back in Norfolk, Mayo or Norby could be the next in line.

“Baseball tends to take care of itself with injuries and different matchups popping up,” Elias said. “I’m sure their time is coming but we’re not going to sit there and watch players dominate a level for too long. It’s just not our style. We’re definitely keeping an eye on all those guys down there. I guarantee you every single one of those guys plus many more players are going to help this team in various points throughout the year.”

Each week, The Baltimore Sun will break down five of the top performers in the Orioles’ prospect ranks and hand out some superlatives for those who didn’t make that cut. Here’s who stood out:

1. Triple-A Norfolk lefthander Cade Povich

While all the attention has been focused on the Tides’ potent offense, Povich has quietly gotten off to a stellar start in 2024. After going 5 ⅔ innings Saturday with one run allowed and 10 strikeouts, a new personal best at Triple-A, Povich lowered his season ERA and WHIP to 1.10 and 0.55, respectively. He’ll certainly be a candidate to pitch in Baltimore this summer.

2. Triple-A Norfolk infielder Coby Mayo

Mayo recorded at least one hit every game last week to extend his hitting streak to 11 games. On Friday, he recorded a two-homer game. He also didn’t strike out in the contest, a good sign given the only nitpick of his production so far has been his strikeout total. He’s struck out 23 times to just five walks so far.

3. High-A Aberdeen catcher Creed Willems

The No. 29 prospect in the Orioles’ organization according to MLB Pipeline, Willems earned the South Atlantic League Player of the Week Award after going 6-for-17 (.353) with three home runs and seven RBIs in four games. Willems, who appeared in the club’s Spring Breakout prospect showcase in March, has started at catcher and first base so far.

4. Double-A Bowie righthander Trace Bright

Through two turns of the Bowie rotation, no one has struck out more batters than Bright. The Orioles’ No. 16 prospect made two starts last week, striking out 14 batters to only two walks. He posted a strong 3.12 ERA, though he did allow 10 hits and two home runs in 8 ⅔ innings. Bright, 23, could move quickly through the Orioles’ system if he continues to flash such gaudy strikeout totals.

5. Double-A Bowie infielder Frederick Bencosme

Bencosme has been one of the fastest-rising prospects in the Orioles’ system over the past two seasons. After signing out of the Dominican Republic for $10,000 in 2020, the left-handed middle infielder reached High-A as a 19-year-old in 2022 and spent all year there last season. He’s off to a nice start now in Double-A, hitting .333 last week with his first home run of 2024 after slugging just two all of last year.