Turkey supplies down, prices up amid holiday uncertainty

Texas Agrilife

Wholesale turkey prices are up and production is down amid looming uncertainty over how COVID-19 will impact traditional consumer trends this Thanksgiving, according to a Texas A&M Agrilife Extension Service expert.

David Anderson, PH.D., Agrilife Extension economist, Bryan-college Station, said the turkey market has been more interesting than normal going into the holidays.

Supply, demand and the subsequent pricing and marketing of turkeys in 2020 appears like it could be heavily influenced by COVID-19, Anderson said. Some aspects of the market are already being affected.

On the supply side, turkey production is down 7.7% for October compared to the same time last year, Anderson said. And overall production is down 2.7% for 2020 so far compared to 2019.

Turkeys in cold storage, which are typically stocked up for the holiday rush, were down 11.5% in September, he said.

“The turkey industry has struggled with profitability and some of the trends when it comes to consumer choices around the holidays and the consumer trends when it comes to deli meat,” he said. “You have producers trying to gauge demand and what the market will be, and that’s been difficult the last few years.”

Lower supplies have driven prices up this year, Anderson said. Wholesale turkeys, both tom, which are typically 16-24 pounds, and hen, which are 8-16 pounds, prices were 19% higher compared to last year due to tighter supplies.

Last year, wholesale turkey prices were 20% below the five-year average. Anderson said it would be interesting to see if retailers continue the practice of running specials on turkeys to draw shoppers.

But COVID-19 adds uncertainty surrounding typical holiday gatherings

and the subsequent choices consumers will make this year, Anderson said.

A marketing survey by the Food Industry Association and marketing consultants, the Hartman Group, showed 33% of Americans will have fewer people at their traditional Thanksgiving celebrations. Around 26% of respondents said they would avoid long-distance travel.

“That’s interesting in relation to the normal demand side of all things related to these traditional holiday gatherings,” he said. “If people are scaling back, it will be interesting to see how the market for turkeys and traditional Thanksgiving dishes plays out.”

Agrilife Extension district reporters compiled the following summaries:

CENTRAL

The district received much-needed rain, but experienced one of the driest Octobers on record. Most counties reported adequate soil moisture levels. Winter wheat and winter forages had not emerged. Planting plans remained in limbo pending sufficient moisture for seed germination. Planting wheat into dry soil was being considered by some producers. Rains slowed cotton harvest in some areas. With good weather, producers should finish cotton harvesting within a week. Winter crops were doing well now, but some were stressing due to lack of rainfall. Livestock body conditions were good with producers feeding hay and other supplemental feeding. Stock pond levels were holding steady.

WEST CENTRAL

Cold and wet conditions gave way to warmer temperatures. Rain and icy conditions brought the first freeze of the season that terminated warm-season crops. Cotton harvest halted. Some cotton was not completely mature, and the freeze damaged unopened bolls. Rainfall was very beneficial to the win

ter wheat crop. Wheat conditions were mostly good. Rangelands and pastures were in fair condition and showed some improvement as cool-season forages emerged. Livestock were in fair to good condition.

SOUTHWEST

Soil moisture, rangeland and pasture conditions were all declining across the district due to the lack of rainfall. Kinney County reported a half-inch of rainfall. The last hay was being cut and rolled. Some early pecan varieties were beginning to fall. Caldwell County reported cattle markets were down while sheep and goats were up. There were reports of increased predator activity. Livestock and wildlife were in fair condition with supplemental feeding. White-tailed deer pre-rut was starting.

SOUTH

Most of the district reported short to very short soil moisture levels. Starr and Cameron counties reported adequate soil moisture. Temperatures cooled with a cold front that dropped daytime temperatures into the 70s with nighttime lows in the 40s. No rainfall was reported. Coastal Bermuda grass was going dormant. Producers were prepping land for their next planting. Trees were starting to defoliate. Wheat and oat plantings continued, with the majority of the crop complete and irrigated fields emerging. Rangeland and pasture conditions continued to decline due to lack of rainfall. Cattle were in good condition. Supplemental feeding of livestock increased. Local cattle markets were depressed and seeing lower prices on all classes. Livestock producers were securing round hay bales to prepare for winter and were considering reducing their herds. Stock tanks were low in some areas. Dove season ended, but quail and deer season began; hunting reports were promising. Pecan harvest was underway with average yields reported. Producers continued to bale buffelgrass and harvest seed. Sesame harvest wrapped up. Some fall corn was planted. Vegetables looked good, and citrus was being harvested. A small number of farmers had planted greens.